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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (4512)	11/3/2000 1:10:06 PM
From: herenow_2	Respond to of 5482

Briefing.Com's take. Their bottom is $ 8-9 but I don't think that takes Cerprobe into account: 11:05 ET ****** Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) 11 11/16 -3 3/16: Investors in Kulicke & Soffa have to be wondering just how many times they're going to have to hear their company report incidences of customer order deferrals and bonder push-outs. On August 2, KLIC shocked the investment community with a warning that its financial performance for its fiscal fourth quarter and 2001 may be negatively impacted by the aforementioned developments. Its stock got hammered the following session, dropping as much as 39% at one point before rebounding to end the day down just 25%. In the ensuing weeks, KLIC rallied nearly 50% from its August 3 low of 13 9/16 as traders dismissed the response as an over-reaction. As it turns out, the reaction that day proved to be right on the money as KLIC followed up its August announcement with some disappointing EPS guidance in September. While it managed to make it through October without any caustic news, it made up for its silence in spades last night when it announced a sales warning for its first fiscal quarter, citing a continuation of order deferrals and push-outs by some of its major assembly customers. Because of that, KLIC now expects 1Q01 revenues to be in the range of $140 mln to $165 mln. To put that shortfall in some perspective, CS First Boston was expecting KLIC to report sales of $254 mln. KLIC didn't provide any specific earnings guidance, but an earnings miss seems to be implied given the magnitude of the sales shortfall. The Zacks consensus estimate for 1Q01 is $0.59. As for its fiscal fourth quarter, KLIC is scheduled to report its results on November 14. CS First Boston, for one, said it was fairly comfortable with its sales estimate of $254 mln and its earnings estimate of $0.60 for that period; however, the analyst, John Pitzer, noted that his FY01 EPS estimate of $1.65 and sales estimate of $813 mln were clearly under review and will be revised following managmenet's conference call on November 6. In the meantime, Pitzer has gone ahead and downgraded KLIC to HOLD from BUY, attributing his move to the high level of uncertainty and timing for a rebound, the inability to predict corrective measures by management, and the high likelihood of unprofitable quarters ahead. Pitzer went on to note that KLIC's current valuation doesn't reflect its full downside risk, and that trough valuations of 0.5x sales and 1.5x book value would suggest a bottom share price of $8-9. KLIC is well on its way there today as a hefty number of investors have heard all they want to hear from this company.-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (4512)	11/3/2000 4:40:22 PM
From: Red Dragon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5482

To ALL: Another prediction to come true First brought up by me several months ago, I think it's now virtually certain a shareholder lawsuit will be filed very shortly. Scott Kulicke made some very bold and very public statements several months ago saying revenue growth would continue unabated and not top out until 2002, opening him up to a shareholder lawsuit. (see link below) Now we know how to interpret their statements. "Order pushouts" means "cancellations" (No, no, our customers didn't cancel their orders. They just pushed them out ... indefinitely ... until the next cycle upswing 2 years from now) Here is my favorite: "Customers are deferring new orders." What a slick way of saying "no one is buying." Bill Clinton would be very proud. From this thread, it was clear that SK's bold statements partially influenced many of you to hold on or buy more. You should all consider joining the suit. The statements were very reckless, as I mentioned back then. It might even lead to SK's fall. He misled everyone during the previous cycle top as well. Here's the link. Note the comment at the bottom of the link Message 14169812