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To: sammaster who wrote (33642)	11/3/2000 2:27:01 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

obviously sellers of naked calls are short in a round-about way. however, we'll get a full view of the commercial net spoo position tonight after trading, and i'd recommend waiting for that before assessing the current situation. the p/c ratios are interesting insofar as they show a rapid switch by the public from being slightly worried (never went beyond an arching of eyebrows anyway), to being unreservedly bullish. if you're long it's preferable to see some skepticism accompanying a rally. also, fund inflows haven't ceased during October...a study of 1970's fund flows i have recently looked at showed that the public continued to buy all recoveries, EXCEPT the REAL one. when the market rallied off the '74 low, which has never been seen again since, the public sold into the rally by liquidating its mutual fund holdings. this is the yardstick by which we should judge the rallies in this bear market. the first rally that is actually SOLD by the public, will be the one worth playing with all one's firepower.