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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Voltaire who wrote (11575)	11/3/2000 4:26:45 PM
From: pinhi	Respond to of 65232

I'm out. Going to hit golf balls. Good weekend to everyone. eom Pinhi

To: Voltaire who wrote (11575)	11/3/2000 4:28:23 PM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

COOL POST FOR THE DAY--FROM YESTERDAY--RMBS From: Zeev Hed Thursday, Nov 2, 2000 7:38 PM ET Reply # of 60153 Rich, you should not be disappointed at all. As a matter of fact, on the first announcement I suggested that $52 will serve as an overhead resistance (so far, on the nose on this one). The dynamics are quite simple. A lot of investors got caught napping when the stock did its plunge to below $52, for good reasons, it gapped down. These investors are now praying every night to the almighty and saying, "please, oh please, bring it back above $50 and I promise I'll never play this game again", or something to that effect. Furthermore, I think that a big chunk of the short position has been dissipated in the rally from $36 or so (we had a 30 MM shares day with, I believe some 6 MM short only), thus the fuel that often was there in the past to catapult the bu$$ over its technical resistance is no longer there. So far we had two "attacks" on the $52 line, we may need more than the traditional three (particularly since the volume today was not large enough to eliminate the stock overhang from those praying that prayer. I am guestimating that we will have to have some 10 MM shares total (in a number of thrust to $52) traded between $50.5 and $51.5 or so to finally exhaust that supply. Once that supply is exhausted, we will have a new group of "faithful" praying for the stock yo get within shouting distance of where they bought a lot (in the $63 to $65 area). Hopefully, some of the stall here at $52 is also due to the shorts that covered, reestablishing their shorts in the $50/$52 area. Hopefully, since in due time (once Infineon, Hyundai and Micron buckle), we will get additional announcements of Dramurai signing up. Once they do, their due Royalties will also be from June 2000. Once the market realizes, that samsung alone will add about $.15 to the bottom line in the current quarter and if infineon or another dramuraui comes on board, even more. The current accepted forecast for this quarter earnings is $.09, if you just add Samsung, you get (without the upfront payment) about $.24, thus the current earning rate is already a buck a share. When these numbers start to sink in, I think that a lot of additional investors will come for a ride on the bu$$ and those bumps at $52 and next around $63 will be just that, bumps. Next you longs curse the shorts, remember that this bump at $52 would have been a non event if we had 20 MM shares short. Love thy neighbor and the shorts, they provide that fuel that catapult stocks over their resistance area, and support the stock when irrational desperation sets in (g). Zeev