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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (60501)	11/4/2000 7:35:37 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116764

< A smart president will recognize the envitable fall out from the excesses and "desire" a predictable downturn vs. one that surprises> I'm not so sure that either candidate is smart enough for that. But I do know that each candidate has an agenda and I think Gold will do well next year regardless of who gets elected. Gore IMO is the best candidate for Gold being able to enter a long term bull market. If Gore gets elected, he will double the size of government and spend the surplus on tons of social programs. He is the tax and spend candidate. If he gets elected, along with a Democratic Congress, you will see growth stagnate and inflation accelerate. I can't think of a better economic scenario for Gold. If Bush gets elected, you will see tax cuts and spending cuts. The tax cuts are long term bullish for equities, as Reagan showed in the early 80's. The corresponding spending cuts, however, are short term bearish because they will put further pressure on growth and a recession would most likely result in 2001. Under either Administration gold should do well in 2001. The question is what's in store in 2002-2004. With Bush, I see another equity bull market developing during this time period, as the tax cuts finally get redeployed into equities. Some of the "gold bugs" here are clueless as to the long term effects of tax cuts. They are just wrapped up into their own bigoted agendas which they just masquerade under terms of "manipulation", "facts", "GATA", "morality" "truth", "good and evil", etc. If Gore gets elected, along with a Republican Congress, many of his programs will get dismissed by Congress. The question will then be whether he is strong enough as Clinton was, to work within this limitation and get the bulk of his agenda passed by other means. I don't think either candidate will exude the kind of strength and confidence that will inspire Wall Street. Clinton was quite creative and able to manipulate the economic cycle to the benefit of the bulls. Bush is more passive and a slave to the economic cycle. It remains to be seen how pragmatic Gore could become if he confronts a Republican Congress. <Welcome to the bear market. phase two just around the corner.> Phase 2 may not come into being until March of 2001. Further concrete evidence of a hard landing may be needed to get the NAZ to break 3000 decisively on the downside. <Gold has upside... how much upside is another question.> Look at Currencies: The Dollar Index, Euro, Aussie and Canadian $$$. IMO, a break below 105 on the dollar index will get the POG to $300 and a break below 100 will get the POG to at least $350. All this other talk is a bunch of BS. Greenspan will need to radically ease sometime in 2001. The gold stocks will greatly benefit from that as the Dollar will decline. The more Greenspan eases, the better it is for the XAU. The longer it takes for Growth to reaccelerate the better it is for the XAU. In many ways, the gold stocks are an anti-growth or recessionary play. That is why you have so many doomers and gloomers here. The upside in Gold depends on the severity and nature of the hard landing. The quicker the recovery, the less upside for Gold. The longer it takes to get out of the hard landing, the better for gold.