Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FESHBACH_DISCIPLE who wrote (42202)	11/3/2000 11:04:38 PM
From: Paul Reuben	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

IF CISCO TRADES AT A 15 PE IN 5 YEARS TIME WITH MARGINS STAYING AS IS WHAT DO SALES HAVE TO BE IN YEAR 5? Winner gets to keep some of his money. 5 years?! We're more concerned about Monday afternoon..............

To: FESHBACH_DISCIPLE who wrote (42202)	11/4/2000 11:14:25 AM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 77400

Well, that is a hard question to answer because there are so many factors that go into the calculation. However, if They grew revenues from year 4 to year 5 at an 8% rate and earnings grew at the same rate, and the PE was equal to 1.75 times the growth rate, that would give us a 15 PE and revenues of $66 billion. Of course, I'm leave out all the assumptions I made in all the years from here to there. Now the more likely scenario is that they will have grown revenues from year 4 to 5 by about 18%, PE will be at around 50, earnings will be growing 5% slower than revenues at about a 13% rate, putting revenues at around $80 billion, and the stock price at around $92 per share. That's about a 10% annualized return.