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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (58679)	11/4/2000 1:18:52 AM
From: KLP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

From MSNBC tonight: Wall Street braces for Decision 2000 With the economy on the right track, the presidential race is being closely watched Stock market traders are stuck in the middle waiting to see whether Gore or Bush will be heading for the White House. By Martin Wolk MSNBC Nov. 3 — Greenspan-worshipping Wall Street types are loath to give much credit to President Clinton for the economic success of the past eight years. The decisions of the Federal Reserve chief in guiding monetary policy, according to this line of reasoning, have far more influence over the direction of the economy than a weak president in an era of political gridlock. BUT EVEN JADED Wall Street investors will have to glance up from their Cisco balance sheets next week to take in the results of the tightest presidential election in decades as the nation’s voters get set to deliver a true November surprise. “It’s so close that the market can’t have discounted the results,” said Alfred Goldman, chief market strategist for A.G. Edwards. Not only is the race between Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore too close to call, both houses of Congress also are hanging in the balance, leaving the markets with plenty to digest on Wednesday and possibly for weeks to come as final results of local elections come trickling in. Goldman is among many analysts who expect a traditional Republican rally if Bush survives the latest revelation of a “youthful indiscretion” and wins the White House. “We’ll have a big upside party for three or four days, and then we’ll have a hangover,” Goldman predicted. Dow Jones Industrials Index ($INDU) price change $10,817.95 -62.56 Add this stock to your MSNBC homepage Nasdaq Combined Composite Index ($COMPX) price change $3,451.58 +22.56 Add this stock to your MSNBC homepage Data: MSN MoneyCentral Investor and S&P Comstock Click here for Quotes But Goldman and others said the market could rally even if Gore wins — as long as Republicans maintain control of Congress, ensuring two more years of political gridlock, or at least a powerful check on the powers of the executive branch. “My guess is it’s the uncertainty of the election more than the outcome that has people worried,” said Phil Dow, director of equity strategy for Dain Rauscher Wessels. Others disagree, saying stock investors automatically will hit the sell button if Gore is elected, both because of Gore’s more populist campaign rhetoric and because of Wall Street’s natural Republican inclinations. “There could be a negative market reaction because he has demonized the drug industry, the HMO industry, the oil industry — people in those industries might have reason to be concerned if Gore is elected,” said David Orr, chief economist for First Union Corp. Bookmark this column Martin Wolk's stock column appears every Friday. • Click here to bookmark If Gore wins and the Democrats take back control of even one house in Congress, stocks are expected to fall and bonds to rise on prospects that Gore then will have a much better shot of implementing his economic program, with its stronger focus on paying down the national debt. ECONOMY ON THE RIGHT TRACK ECRI Future Inflation Gauge For October : 0.9% Employment Situation For October : 137,000 NAPM Non-Mfg. For October : 58.0 Factory Orders (SIO or M3) For September : 1.6% Index of Online Shopping For October : 150.2 ECRI Weekly Leading Index For 10/27/00 : -2.1% Economic Calendar Investors may have every reason to be uncertain about the election’s outcome, but they can be increasingly confident that by all indications the economy is gliding in for the much-desired soft landing, which should keep the economy growing next year no matter who moves in to the White House. Most convincing was a report on Friday that showed job growth slowing and wages barely creeping higher even as the unemployment rate stayed unchanged at a decade-low 3.9 percent. The report was seen by economists as confirming a slow-growth scenario and keeping the central bank on the sidelines at its upcoming Nov. 15 meeting and beyond. “I think almost all the economic evidence says Greenspan has pulled off a soft landing,” Goldman said. Other analysts were more cautious, saying they did not expect the central bank to cut interest rates anytime soon but that there was no reason yet to worry about a “hard landing” that would bring substantially slower growth or a recession. Since what some analysts described as a “climactic” selloff Oct. 18, stock prices have rebounded smartly, leading many to speculate that markets bottomed out that day for the second time this year. Although the Dow Jones industrial average ended the week on a down note, the benchmark index still closed with a gain of 2 percent for a week, bringing its total advance to nearly 7 percent since the close Oct. 18. The tech-dominated Nasdaq composite index rallied 5 percent for the week and ended with back-to-back gains Thursday and Friday. That leaves the index, which has dropped more than 15 percent so far this year, with a chance to pull off its first three-day rally in more than two months. Dow falls 63 points, Nasdaq adds 23 TECHNICAL RALLY ON THE CARDS Advertisement Quick Gifts Swimwear Books Music & Video Computing Electronics Toys & Games More . . . Once investors get past their jitters over Cisco’s earnings, expected after the close Monday, and the election, there are some technical reasons to expect at least a modest rally in the waning weeks of the year. For one thing, the annual horror show of October is over, and November historically is one of the best months for the stock market, according to Anthony Cataldo, a professor at Western Michigan University’s Haworth College of Business who has written a book about seasonal patterns in the stock market. In addition the January effect, the well-documented tendency for small-cap stocks especially to enjoy big run-ups in the first two weeks of the year, has in recent years been creeping into December. One theory is that investors are seeking to snap up small-cap issues at bargain prices after they have been dumped for tax-loss purposes. “Generally speaking, I would see every reason why November and December should be strong,” Cataldo said. Then again, Cataldo acknowledged that this year has been unusual with its sharp, sudden selloff from March through May after a virtual explosion in tech stock prices last year. “This was a weird year,” Cataldo said. “And it was a weird year after a weird year.” msnbc.com