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To: slacker711 who wrote (86234)	11/4/2000 1:36:35 PM
From: Cooters	Respond to of 152472

Slacker, IMHO, what has happened to PCS over the last month or so is due to the market's pendulum swinging from 'profits do not matter' 8 months ago to 'only short-term profits matter' today. PCS built not only a digital network from scratch, but the entire business from scratch. Marketing and distribution channels, advertising, everything. They are now poised to become the #1 digital(subtract analog customers) carrier in the US. This is IMO, based on their growth rates and the limited data we get on dig/analog subs from the other carriers. They have an established data business poised to move to 150K or so, enough spectrum to handle the whole damn market under 1X, and they are falling because they are only going to make $1.6B EBITDA and need to raise equity to fund their expansion. What the Fu*# is that. This is a gift at 28. I've been trading the moves but may just load up on the 2003's for good if it goes much lower. Already have plenty of the stock from when it was first issued. Opened the PCS board on TMF, BTW. Cooters - OK, now I'm going to the party

To: slacker711 who wrote (86234)	11/4/2000 4:51:08 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Notes from the PCS analyst meeting....as always they tend to be a little disorganised, so I hope I got all of the numbers correct. Just some general impressions...PCS continually emphasized the capacity of their CDMA network. They plan on moving to 1xrtt during 2001, 1XEV-DO (HDR 2.4Mbps) during 2002, and 1XEV-DV (3-5Mbps) during 2003. They also emphasized the need for applications. As one member of management put it..... What are we going to do with all this capacity? Applications, applications, applications. They plan on having location-based services running sometime next year along with the beginning of advertising on handsets. The adoption of handsets with color LCD's is expected "pretty soon". JMO....PCS is leading the industry in innovation and will soon have the capacity to really drive data intensive applications. The TDMA operators are in trouble...and most of the other CDMA operators (Verizon and Alltel) have too many analog subs to really take advantage of their capacity advantages. I believe that the reason the stock fell is that PCS announced that they will be doing a $3B equity offering during sometime in 2001. Also, they gave guidance for $1.6B in EBITDA for 2001 vs the analyst estimates of around $2B. On to the good stuff..... - 25% of gross adds during the 3Q were business users. - Data subs are expected to increase geometrically. Over 1m users are expected by the end of the year. It looks to me like they are about to hit a critical mass that is needed to attract application development. - Over 400 MOU/Month during the 3Q. Rev's up 104%. 750,000 data users.... - They need spectrum in just a "handful" of cities. They believe they are well positioned with their current spectrum along with the occasional spectrum swap. They will participate in the spectrum auctions but only on a limited basis. - They now have around 25 games vs. 0 a month ago. They believe that this will help drive the teen-age market (same pattern as in Korea/Japan). Yesterday 10,000 users played Gladiator with an average game time of 6 minutes. I've played it....pretty cool. The games will get more interesting/complex with the advent of color LCD's. - 1,000,000 MOU of AOL IM during the first two weeks of launch. Something like 80% of teens who have computers use IM. - They mentioned business applications multiple times....particuarly Siebel. - With IS-95A they saw a 5-7x capacity advantage over AMPS....3x GSM and TDMA. - An example of the amount of capacity they have is NYC. They saw a 105% increase in MOU in NY during the last year, but only a 25% increase in spectrum usage. The busiest place (in terms of handset usage) in NYC is JFK airport....however they expect to only have to use 17.5MHz to handle JFK in 2003. - The upgrade path allowed by CDMA will involve changing out channel cards vs the "fork-lift" upgrades that competitors will require. - Capital Expenditures for next year will be $3.5B. $350-400m for 1xrtt upgrades....$700m for expansion....$900m for applications/back office development. The last category includes position location services, improvements in billing systems, and new wireless web services. - Vendors are telling them to expect a 50% improvement in stand-by times with 3G (1xrtt) handsets. - Capacity improvements are going to be huge. Using the current IS-95A capacity as a baseline of 1. IS-95A 1 EVRC ~1.4x 1xrtt 3x Smart Antennas 5.8x Selectable Rate Vocoder 8x They expect to have 8x the current capacity over the next 4 years. They made the comparision to DWDM. - They have turned EVRC (variable rate vocoder) on in 85% of their markets, they expect complete to the roll-out in the 2Q '01. - The 1x roll-out will begin during 2001 and be completed during the 2Q '02. They expect to spend about $800m on the roll-out with half of that money coming next year. - They currently have 13,700 cell-sites covering 182m POP's. They will have around 18,000 cell sites at the end of '01. In addition their affiliates currently cover 31m POP's.....totals about 75% of the population. Currently roaming is less than 5% of MOU.... - Customer care is becoming more automated. They are adding features to there website to allow customers to handle things on their own. Also, when you dial in for customer care, they ask for your phone number. You are then grouped into the type of customer you are. High-use customers take an average of 10 seconds to have their phone answered.... Some stuff I didnt like....They still didnt give any concrete guidance on net-adds for the fourth quarter. They stuck with 18-22% of total US adds. The decline in EBITDA was never adequately explained. They mentioned customer care costs, but sort of hinted that they were being conservative. They should have been conservative two months ago! Hmmm....I think I am just about typed out. Slacker