To: Zeev Hed who wrote (52080 ) 11/5/2000 7:22:00 AM From: DJBEINO Respond to of 53903 12-In. Wafer Production Delay Could be Good News for DRAM Industry November 3, 2000 (TAIPEI) -- U.S.-based Micron Technology Inc. and Korea-based Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. and Hyundai Electronics Industries Co., Ltd., overseas DRAM giants, have seen their share prices fall at least 60 percent since the third quarter in line with the tumble in the DRAM spot price. The sagging share price has made it very difficult for these powerhouses to raise funds on the public markets, and they have therefore decided to postpone construction of planned 12-inch wafer fabrication plants. Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers are in a similar situation. According to a report, Taiwan's chipmakers have decided to scrap their new share issue plans, bowing to recent heavy selling pressure. Annoyingly for them, the downward pressure on their share price has little to do with the industry's fundamentals, being almost entirely the result of local political and economic turmoil attributable to the new Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government, which took office on May 20. An observer said that the failure by Taiwan's DRAM makers to raise funds at present was likely to be repeated in other industries, as the Cabinet's announcement to halt construction of the fourth nuclear power plant will deal a further heavy blow to confidence in the local stock market, and will create political turmoil whose outcome is difficult to predict. IC manufacturers said the failure by the DRAM makers to raise funds for their 12-inch fab plants would put back the production peak of 12-inch wafers at least six months. Ironically, this could be no bad thing, as it will postpone the long-predicted glut in the DRAM market beyond the end of 2003, enabling DRAM manufacturers to preserve their profitability in the next three years. Despite the IC industry's encouraging prediction, the five largest local DRAM manufacturers, including Winbond Electronics Corp., Nanya Technology Corp., Powerchip Semiconductor Corp., and Vanguard International Semiconductor Co., Ltd., said stable growth in order flow did not translate automatically into mounting profits. Given that the five DRAM leaders are expected to account for 21 percent of worldwide 64Mb DRAM production in the coming year, and to enjoy growing orders from United States and Japan, why are they so worried? Manufacturers are concerned that the downward correction in the DRAM price may last until the end of next year's first quarter, and that the technical rebound in the wake of the sharp price fall will be simply a flash in the pan. Since the DRAM unit price will stay at lows at least in the first half of 2001, these local makers are inclined to believe that cutting their manufacturing costs will be the only way to preserve their profitability. nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com