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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (61866)	11/4/2000 3:35:15 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Stephen, let me put it this way, where we differ is in the January rally. If we do not get a string of extremely deep oversold readings in that December retest of the recent bottom, we don't get that "mother of all rallies". If we get that extreme, well, than December's low will be a new low (g). Since I do not expect a new low in December, I must remain at odds with your forecast about the "mother of all rallies" in January. Here are just few of many "fundamental" reasons: We will begin getting 4th quarter results from corporations, and we will find to our surprise that winter heating bills may have eaten some $300 to $500 or so per household, that was going to be "splurged" on christmas. That is a lot of money when you multiply it by some 60 MM households or so. YOY growth rates comparisons for Q4 will be very tough, except for those companies that are involved in super rapid growth market (telecoms/internet infrastructure), and even these are now indicating slow down in rate of cap-ex. The Asian malaise which is still in the "stealth" phase will become more visible (I already hear that Taiwanese foundries are delaying their own cap ex, reason, no money). The poor Euro will find itself even poorer. Zeev

To: Stephen M. DeMoss who wrote (61866)	11/5/2000 12:43:30 PM
From: eichler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Steve, I noticed your prediction of 3700, +/- 75 for this week. This is about 75 pts above the 50% retrace from the 9/1 high to the 10/18 low and 100 points shy of the 62% retrace. Is your prediction for compx? I was just curious how you picked that number. Also, I noticed a couple weeks ago siliconinvestor.com you mentioned you could not see a forthcoming rally unless you saw what you consider capitulation and a Naz drop around 2800 approx. Perhaps I misinterpreted. I was wondering if you saw enough selling to satisfy your expectation for capitulation or if you simply have changed your mind? I'm not trying to put you on the spot, Lord knows I change my mind as situations continue to unfold <ggg>. Just trying to get a glimpse into the thinking of another player. Thanks in advance. Regards, Eichler