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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (34350)	11/5/2000 3:40:49 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Are you still high on the fiber optic sector Yes. We have nothing but good news from JDSU/SDLI. It is due to blast off. I cannot believe that Cisco will do anything but a penny over.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (34350)	11/5/2000 10:51:26 AM
From: BDR	Respond to of 54805

<<Are you still high on the fiber optic sector? I haven't sensed any positive sentiment for those guys in a while.>> Forgive me if someone has already posted these recent articles here. smartmoney.com This Is No Bubble By James B. Stewart October 31, 2000 The only problem with optical cable is that we don't yet have an optical infrastructure. And building it promises to be one of the biggest and costliest projects in history. Yet it's already underway. rhk.com Global Optical Transport Capital Expenditure Will Increase At Least 36% in 2001 According to RHK Total Carrier Global Capital Expenditures Will Grow by 21% in 2001 South San Francisco, CA. - October 30, 2000 - In the first comprehensive capital expenditure survey conducted by RHK on carrier spending, RHK announced today that global capital expenditures of service providers will grow from $306 billion in 2000 to $370 billion in 2001, a 21% increase year over year. The new forecast on global spending highlighted the forces driving the robust spending worldwide by carriers, such as migration to a data-centric network, the increased deployment of next generation optical transport equipment, and continued carrier build-outs of new networks. RHK expects to see spending on global optical transport, which includes DWDM, SONET and DCS equipment, grow from $47 billion in 2000 to $64 billion in 2001, a 36% increase year over year. rhk.com RHK Unveils New Optical Transport Forecast: North American DWDM Market Projected to Grow Over 50% per annum through 2004 Nortel Increases Share To Maintain #1 Position South San Francisco, CA. - October 30, 2000 -New findings from telecom market research firm, RHK Inc., show that the North American DWDM sector of the terrestrial optical transport market is expected to grow from $3.5 billion in 1999 at a 50% CAGR to $26 billion in 2004. The overall optical transport market, including shipments for DWDM, SONET, and DCS equipment, grew 67% in 2000 and is projected to reach $29.3 billion in 2001 and $45 billion in 2004. RHK expects the North American SONET market to grow at a 15% CAGR through the forecast period, and the DCS market to grow at 9% CAGR. (Note that RHK actually interviews the people making the decisions about capex. Unlike the Wall Street analysts who only interview each other, it would appear.) netscape.zdnet.com. Fiber shortage has carriers scraping Burgeoning use of the Internet and insatiable demand for bandwidth fueled the clamor for fiber, which is now in short supply. By Bill Scanlon, Interactive Week October 29, 2000 4:19 PM PT This year, enough optical fiber will be laid worldwide to make it round trip to the moon 117 times. It won't be nearly enough to keep up with demand.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (34350)	11/5/2000 8:10:50 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

UF First congratulation. Second, I have feeling CSCO is going to surprise everyone. Voice over IP is gaining steam, CSCO is further along in it's optical strategy then this time last year, and market for routers is growing sufficient enough that JNPR grab of market share might not be too much of a factor. Plus management is on record of feeling the stock got too far ahead of itself. Now the stock has sold down to it's old trend from last year (lay edge or piece of paper on the graph url takes you to connecting the lows from last year, that is the trend) stockcharts.com[L,A]DBOLNYMY[DE][PB25!B50!B100!B200!F][VC60][IUC20!LB14!LF!LG!UA12,26,9!LJ[$SPX]] that management might change the dampening of expectation game the CSCO plays so well. So, we could be hearing more of an upbeat tone out of them during the CC. Plus, expectation have been reduced to low levels. All and all I see a nice rally coming our way in our CSCO shares as long as they come through that is. <g> I might throw out one of rules to never buy a stock before earning unless I'm playing the earnings run game. My target price is 10 points higher to 67 if they deliver. The recovery should look much like we had in May/June of this year. Greg