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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary105 who wrote (49133)	11/6/2000 6:44:13 AM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

The SCY ratio (SCYR) compares the yield (Y) of being in stocks (S) with being in cash (C). I use the sum of the dividends and earnings on the S&P500 against the 13 week coupon interest rate on Treasuries. The original author, I believe, thought that the buy/sell point was rigorous with 1.21 being the fulcrum, as they say. The indicator went out of favor since you would have been OUT of the market for the past 6,000 or so DOW points! HOWEVER, using Eistein's theory of relativity (just kidding), I adopted a RELATIVE view of the indicator, now at .66! Danger city lies when the ratio is making new lows... as it is now. You see, the indicator basically says right now that you can make 50% MORE in cash than in the markets on average. WITH NO RISK!!! I have been in cash, except for pin money in cheap options now and again, since July of last year and proud of it! In no time in history have markets been in such dangerous territories, IMHO and all other caveats! To me the question is WHEN and not IF we will have a mega crash that will NOT recover any time soon. BWDIK??? <happy trading...gggggggg>