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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Robert O who wrote (39144)11/5/2000 6:28:14 PM
From: Gottfried  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 70976
 
Robert, I'd have to make a chart of prime rate vs SP500 and it would be interesting. Is there another name for prime rate, or a proxy, in case I have trouble finding it?

Gottfried



To: Robert O who wrote (39144)11/5/2000 7:24:35 PM
From: Jerome  Respond to of 70976
 
On the matter of predictability... interest rates are a good indicator.

In David Dreman's book "Contrarian Investment Strategy" he points out that Mutual Funds have the lowest cash positions at market peaks and the highest cash positions at market bottoms. But that was written over twenty years ago.

Now with there being more mutual funds than NYSE and Nasdaq stocks I don't know if there is a reliable way to track that kind of data.

Jerome



To: Robert O who wrote (39144)11/7/2000 10:55:34 PM
From: Gottfried  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 70976
 
Robert, here's a chart of prime rate vs [SP500-regression to SP500]. You can see the effect of the prime rate bubble in the middle of the chart.

geocities.com

[the regression was performed on the LOG of SP500, the regressed SP was calculated, then difference between actual and regressed SP was charted].

Gottfried
Yes, that puppet should survive. :)