Democrats Have Shot at Regaining a
Majority
By ERIC SCHMITT
WASHINGTON,
Nov. 4 — With
Senate races tightening
before Tuesday's
elections, Democrats
seem more likely than
they were three weeks
ago to pick up at least
two seats, and possibly
the five they need to
reclaim the chamber.
Seven Republican seats
are vulnerable, while two
seats controlled by
Democrats are in serious
danger of turning over,
say nonpartisan election
watchers as well as
senators and aides who
are watching the
campaigns most closely.
Outside groups and both
parties are pouring
millions of dollars into
last-minute advertising
and a small but significant
number of undecided
voters are still hanging
back. Election analysts
say control of the Senate
could hinge on which
side turns out its
supporters in a handful of
races that will go down
to the wire.
"From our standpoint, it's a Maalox moment every day," said
Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, chairman of the
National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Senator Robert G. Torricelli of New Jersey, chairman of the
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said he had never
seen such close races: "Anyone who claims they know that the
next Senate majority leader will be Democrat or Republican
doesn't know what they're talking about."
Perhaps no contest better illustrates the uncertainty engulfing
this year's campaigns than Missouri's, in which voters may elect
Mel Carnahan as its next senator even though the Democratic
governor died in a plane crash on Oct. 16.
Mr. Carnahan's widow, Jean, said she would serve if her
husband won the election, and to the surprise of both
Democrats and Republicans, polls conducted this week show
she is tied with or leading the Republican incumbent, Senator
John Ashcroft.
In another sign of tightening, Republican candidates in
Nebraska and Minnesota who had been given up for dead
surged this week, riding in part on the coattails of Gov. George
W. Bush. Independent analysts said the races were still the
Democrats' to lose.
No matter which party comes out on top, the Senate in the
107th Congress will almost certainly face one of narrowest
majorities in four decades. The margin of control in the House
is also likely to be wafer-thin, increasing the odds of gridlock
on domestic and foreign policy issues.
Even if Republicans hold on to the Senate, election
handicappers say their edge may not last longer than the 2002
campaign, when Republicans will have far more competitive
seats to defend than Democrats.
This year's Senate races are so close that six to eight contests
are within polls' margin of error, or, in other words, dead heats.
The most endangered Republicans are William V. Roth Jr. of
Delaware, Rod Grams of Minnesota, Conrad Burns of
Montana, Spencer Abraham of Michigan, Slade Gorton of
Washington and Mr. Ashcroft. The Democrat most in trouble is
Charles S. Robb of Virginia.
Republicans command a 54-to-46 edge going into Election
Day. That means if Democrats pick up four seats, there would
be a 50-50 tie for the first time since 1882. The vice president
would cast the tie-breaking vote to determine which party runs
committees and sets the agenda.
Complicating this scenario, Senator Joseph I. Lieberman is
running for both vice president and for re- election to his
Connecticut seat. If Vice President Al Gore wins the White
House, Mr. Lieberman would resign from the Senate, and the
Republican governor of Connecticut, John G. Rowland, would
appoint a successor until the 2002 elections. If Mr. Gore loses,
Mr. Lieberman would return to the Senate, but Dick Cheney,
Mr. Bush's running mate, would cast any decisive votes.
That means Democrats need a net gain of five seats to
recapture the chamber they lost in 1994.
Here is the math behind the races:
Two-thirds of the Senate, or 66 senators, are not up for
re-election. Of the 34 who are, only about 13 seats — 8 held
by Republicans and 5 by Democrats — are competitive. In the
last three weeks, however, Republicans appear to have locked
up two of these races.
In Nevada, a former Republican congressman, John Ensign, is
leading the Democrat, Ed Bernstein, a lawyer, to fill the seat of
a retiring Democrat, Richard H. Bryan.
In Rhode Island, Senator Lincoln Chafee is strongly favored to
defeat Representative Bob Weygand, a Democrat. Mr. Chafee
was appointed to fill the seat last year after the death of his
father, Senator John H. Chafee.
To reach 51 seats, Democrats would have to win 10 of the
remaining 11 seats. Democrats appear to be leading in
Minnesota, New Jersey and Nebraska, although election
analysts say all three races have tightened.
If Democrats win those three states, they would need to carry
seven of the eight remaining contests. Here's a quick glance at
the tightest Senate races:
DELAWARE This race boils down to a choice between the
seniority of Mr. Roth, 79, the chairman of the powerful Finance
Committee, and the relative youthfulness of the Democratic
challenger, Gov. Thomas R. Carper, 53. Mr. Roth's age is a
big issue, especially since television crews caught his second fall
in a month on tape. A tossup.
FLORIDA Democrat Bill Nelson, the state insurance
commissioner, has led Republican Representative Bill
McCollum, a House impeachment manager who has tried to
soften his image by supporting hate-crimes legislation and
stronger domestic violence laws. A large number of voters
remain undecided. Still, Mr. Nelson should prevail.
MONTANA Brian Schweitzer, a rancher in his first political
campaign, has been the Democrats' most impressive new
candidate, Republicans say grudgingly. Mr. Burns, the
incumbent, got a slow start, and is now scrambling to avoid an
upset. Another tossup.
WASHINGTON Maria Cantwell, an Internet millionaire and
former Democratic representative, is blitzing Senator Slade
Gorton, the Republican incumbent, with a withering television
barrage. Both sides have polls showing their candidate ahead.
But to win in a state that Mr. Gore expects to carry, Mr.
Gorton will have to outperform Governor Bush.
MICHIGAN Another tough state for Republicans. Senator
Abraham was given up for dead before this race began. But
this spring he roared past Representative Debbie Stabenow,
the Democrat, only to see Ms. Stabenow claw back into a
dead heat in recent weeks. It could go either way.
MISSOURI Perhaps the strangest race of all. Mrs. Carnahan is
running a 60-second television advertisement asking
Missourians to honor her dead husband's memory by voting for
him. Mr. Ashcroft has responded with an advertisement from
John C. Danforth, a respected former Republican senator, who
tells viewers "what's happening to John Ashcroft is just not
right." Some Republicans quietly threaten to file suit if Mrs.
Carnahan wins.
VIRGINIA A bitter campaign between Mr. Robb and the
former Republican governor, George F. Allen, turned even
nastier this week after Mr. Robb accused his rival of compiling
an "appalling" record on racial issues. Mr. Allen assailed the
attack as an act of desperation. Mr. Robb needs a huge turnout
from black voters to pull off an upset here and keep his seat.
NEW YORK Who will turn out the most voters, the Democrat
Hillary Rodham Clinton or the Republican Rick A. Lazio? In
one of the nation's costliest races, Mrs. Clinton is ahead in most
polls, but Mr. Lazio's conservative base seems more energized.
But even Republican strategists say Mrs. Clinton is likely to
win.
Several factors make this year's races difficult to predict.
Pollsters find that many voters are not excited about the
presidential race or other contests down the ticket.
Three of the Democratic candidates — Mark Dayton in
Minnesota, Jon Corzine of New Jersey and Ms. Cantwell —
are wealthy enough to finance their own campaigns.
Mr. Torricelli says it's impossible to predict how things will end.
"There will not be more than 51 Democrats and there won't be
less than 48," he said.
But Mr. McConnell, while not predicting results, voiced
confidence that Republicans will remain in charge. "We're still
going to be in the majority, but it's hard to put a number on it,"
Mr. McConnell said.
Stuart Rothenberg, an editor of a nonpartisan political
newsletter, said Democrats face steep but not impossible odds
in picking up five seats. "It becomes progressively more difficult
after three," he said.
Even when the election is over, the battle may not be. Senator
Strom Thurmond, Republican of South Carolina, turns 98 on
Dec. 5, and has been in poor health. So has Senator Jesse
Helms, Republican of North Carolina, 79, who was recently
hospitalized with pneumonia.
Six other senators are also older than 75, and all come from
states where Democrats are now governors or are likely to be
elected next week.
Copyright 2000 The New York Times Company |
