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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cisco who wrote (429)	11/5/2000 10:38:19 PM
From: TraderGreg	Respond to of 6710

While there historically has been a correlation between popular vote and electoral vote, it is hardly a strong one, on the order of .66. Thus, less than 44% of the variation in electoral vote variation can be explained by popular vote variation, dating back to 1824. Nevertheless, only twice(1876 and 1888) did the popular vote winner fail to win the electoral vote.(In 1824, Andrew Jackson won a plurality of the popular vote and a plurality of the electoral vote, but lost the election in the House.) However, as recently as 1976, 1968, and 1960, small redistributions of the vote nationwide would have changed the electoral vote winner to the losing candidate. In fact, in 1976, less than 20,000 votes rearranged and Gerald Ford would have won the electoral vote, even though he still lost the popular vote. Bush's consistent popular vote lead could be attributed to the racking up of wider and wider margins in TX and his other locked states, while Gore's locked states advantage is shrinking somewhat. If Gore maintains his razor thin leads in FL, PA,WA, and CA closes to a slimmer lead, Gore could lose the nationwide popular vote by as much as 5 to 7 % and still win the electoral vote. Other than the 1824 Jackson fiasco(where the pop and elec vote matched but were only pluralities), Samuel Tilden's 51.5% to 48.5% one on one victory margin over Hayes was the worst example of popular vote win with electoral vote loss. If Gore lost by any margin over 3% in the popular vote but won the electoral vote, it would be the most glaring example of the potential dichotomy between the popular and electoral vote and create a groundswell of protest that would result in abolishing the EC. TG