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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cisco who wrote (439)	11/6/2000 5:32:56 AM
From: Cisco	Respond to of 6710

Final New York Times / CBS News Poll: Bush: 46 percent Gore: 41 percent Nader: 5 percent Buchanan: 1 percent The national poll conducted by The Times and CBS News was of 1,356 registered voters, including 862 likely voters, and was taken Wednesday through Saturday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Some internal findings in the survey give Mr. Gore less comfort than the overall horse race. Mr. Gore's unfavorable rating has risen more briskly than Mr. Bush's since Labor Day. It now stands six points higher than Mr. Bush's, although neither candidate has been able to break through the 50 percent favorability mark. Sixty percent of respondents said Mr. Gore says what he thinks people want to hear, while only 48 percent said that of Mr. Bush. And in another favorable sign for Mr. Bush, 59 percent of his backers described their support for him as "enthusiastic," while only 44 percent of Mr. Gore's supporters said the same about him. . . . Karl Rove, Mr. Bush's chief strategist, said the poll confirmed his belief that his side had a slim yet unmistakable edge. But he predicted a resounding victory for Mr. Bush. "We're going to have a six- or seven-point victory and a substantial margin in the Electoral College of 320 votes or so," Mr. Rove said. Although William M. Daley, the Gore campaign chairman, predicted a Democratic win, neither he nor his colleagues sounded quite as confident as Mr. Rove and his team — or were as willing to suggest as large a margin of victory. "I think we're somewhere around 290 in electoral votes," Mr. Daley said, "and in the popular vote, two and a half or three percentage points. I absolutely believe we're going to win. But I'm not going to spin you and say, `it's done, it's over.' The Bush people are trying to build a little momentum by saying that." nytimes.com

To: Cisco who wrote (439)	11/6/2000 8:55:34 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6710

Cisco, I can give you some anecdotal evidence about Washington State. The Democratic "machine" is out in full force in low turnout, but strongly Democratic Tacoma. My household (one Dem., my wife, one GOP, myself) have received a total of eleven phone calls (in fourteen days) from Democrat campaigners, and none from GOP. And six of those calls came AFTER my Dem. wife told them she already voted absentee. How much does the turnout factor enter into these polls?