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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (40251)	11/6/2000 6:52:09 AM
From: Condor	Respond to of 57584

I would not have arrived at that conclusion. I feel there is tremendous trepidation out there over the threat of meeting the "Cisco sKid". C

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (40251)	11/6/2000 7:09:05 AM
From: Condor	Respond to of 57584

Just for you ....:o) From todays Bull Market Biotech Investor Regards C 1. COMMENTARY The Biotechnology sector had an impressive week with the Nasdaq Biotech Index (^IXB) powering ahead by 8%. In comparison, the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indices advanced by 5% and 3%, respectively. Both High Technology and Biotech stocks continued to build upon earlier gains as investors' concerns about the economy (and many other things) took a back seat to inexpensive stock prices. This week, gains in the Biotech sector were not confined to any single niche or story and most stocks advanced in price. Companies such as Pharmacopeia (PCOP, $28), Invitrogen (IVGN, $84) and Large Scale Biology (LSBC, $22) announced better-than-expected earnings reports that caught the attention of investors. In addition, a favorable court ruling and analyst upgrades served as a catalyst for the rise in Affymetrix' share price. The company won an appeal in which the judge ruled that a license to use Oxford Gene's microarray technology did transfer to Affymetrix when it purchased a company possessing such a license. There have been a few articles, comments and discussions recently about this year's terrific performance of the Biotechnology sector and its ability to avoid a recent corrective phase like many High Tech and Internet stocks. Yes, it did appear that money was flowing into Biotechnology stocks as the High Tech sector started to weaken in August. But, the 19% gain that the Biotech sector experienced in August was wiped out in September. That was a swift correction and many Biotech stocks got hit just as High Tech stocks. It seems that some pundits believe that it is Biotech's turn to enter a corrective phase, but haven't Biotech stocks already gone through corrections in March and September? The Nasdaq Biotech Index (^IXB), that consists of nearly 200 Biotech stocks, remains 20% off its high of the year. In fact, over one-half of Biotech stocks remain 50% or more off their 52-week highs. Yes, the sector has made a terrific percentage gain this year in comparison to the major averages, but many stocks have yet to approach the values achieved in February. Consider the genomics niche, where stocks such as Affymetrix (AFFX, $85), Incyte Genomics (INCY, $38), Sequenom (SQNM, $30), Hyseq (HYSQ, $28), Nanogen (NGEN, $18), Celera (CRA, $77), CuraGen (CRGN, $65) and Gene Logic (GLGC, $25) all once sold in the triple digits. Are these stocks going to further correct? The frenzy in the Biotech sector that occurred earlier in the year is certainly not happening at the current time. There will continue to be up and down cycles in the Biotech sector, but a hard correction would require a huge change in investor sentiment. The announcement of earnings reports will continue this week. Companies scheduled to report on Monday include Human Genome Sciences (HGSI, $98), Packard BioScience (PBSC, $18) and Vical (VICL, $24). On Thursday, earnings reports are scheduled from Orchid BioSciences (ORCH, $24), Alkermes (ALKS, $41), Pain Therapeutics (PTIE, $19) and Aclara BioSciences (ACLA, $18). Investors should pay attention to the earnings report by Human Genome Sciences because the company is highly valued and a leader in the sector. In recent issues of THE BULL MARKET BIOTECH INVESTOR, we have pointed out that the current price-to-sales ratio of Human Genome is above 500, and far greater than most all large-cap Biotech stocks. What concerns us the most is that the company does not yet have a single drug in a Phase III clinical trial. There is a lot of potential already built into the stock price. For these reasons we believe the stock to be overvalued. The current 50 day moving average is $84 and if it breaks below this, we may see much lower prices. We will sell the stock if it hits $79. =================================================

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (40251)	11/6/2000 8:30:17 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

. . .QUESTIONS. . . . [GreenLaw, This too has been covered: Message 14718547 .] New topics: 1. Barrons says "no economic slowdown". . but the economy has clearly been showing signs of slowing, despite strong output. Will the FOMC move to a neutral stance Dec. 19th or Jan 30th? 2. And what about M2? Are the families of the Fed going to inject cash into the markets to add liquidity, like they tend to do each time this year? So far, there are signs that they are. 3. AOL/TWX merger. . . regulators giving their answer this week. [If they open their cable lines, they get the deal. . .if not, they may not.] This is a mega merger of the internet and traditional media. . .which could change the face of entertainment/media companies forever. Could the go ahead fuel a new mania in the beaten down internet sector? 4. Will we get a Santa Claus Rally this week? And if so, which stocks should gain most from it? I am betting it will NOT be the toy sector. . . but rather the Electronics Retailers, like BBY & CC. But I am hedging with Wal-Mart. . . the store that can do no wrong. . .and is the pulse of the American consumer [believe it or not]. Sidebar: I never stepped foot inside a Wal-Mart until I began to support 4 kids in the mid-90's. If you have never been in one, just step inside a Super Wal-Mart at any time of the day or night and count the active cashiers. The number is probably somewhere between 20 and 40! 5. Last December was driven totally by the Individual Investor. . . remember the Holidility that led us to the market highs of December 31st? But this year, the Individual Investor is maimed. And unless we get a mania of sorts to kick start participation, much of the upward movement has been WITHOUT many Individual Investors. If this trend remains, I expect December to be akin to the Summer Bear. . .slowly drifting lower on weak volume. Will Individual Investors get back in the drivers seat by then? And if not, when? When is the next time that WE will be back in control of the markets? 6. And along the same lines. . .Will Mutual Funds begin to see greater inflows, due to the hesitation by the Individual Investor toward directing their own portfolios? And if we believe this, then is it not in our best interest to accurately follow this money? What will the weather be like this winter? And will oil prices continue to drop? Or could we have an energy crises? Thanks all. . . I believe this is an important time to be looking down the road a ways to see where we may be headed. Rande Is