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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Matz who wrote (49136)	11/6/2000 12:37:56 PM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 94695

<Goodmorning Bill, regarding the SCYR, wouldn't .50 be 50% rather than .66? If not why? Do you offer a long term chart of this ratio, or know where one can be viewed?> I believe 1.0 is around parity, Jon, so 50% of .66 would get you to 1.0. To me that means that it is a toss-up at 1.0 as to which would earn you more on AVERAGE. Now if you are a hotshot stock and/or mutual fund picker, no sweat. But for the average investor (I count myself in those ranks) cash equivalents are the place to be! As for a chart... I have lying around one of my PCs, data going back to 1944 thanks to an SIer who gave me that data. I even tried plotting the data and that is why I am a convert to a RELATIVE stance... the markets seem to falter as it is making new lows - no not instanteously, but over a week or so. The fulcrum point depends on your trading horizon... short term I would think about .7 would be the point to be buying and under that, selling. And that value will change over time. Now I thought it wouldn't get below .68, but here it is today at .66! Longer term, I would think the value is nearer 1.0! Last year, if I remember correctly, it was around .8 when I decided to stay out of the markets and stay in cash. Now remember, I would not buy until I saw an extreme move... last time we REALLY had a dive, that ratio went to 1.52!!! So that is why I think we have a big sell-off coming... a BK to the max. And the election may just trigger it??? BWDIK?