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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (77984)	11/6/2000 11:08:20 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

puckertime ?re: Oct 97 deja vu & the tubulars being indicators MVK NSS and LSS/ the tubulars were a great indicator of the OSX top in the '97-'98 cycle: finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com Once they turned from the top - the cycle was over & MVK LSS and NSS never recovered, never bounced - it was a very accurate indicator that the OSX valuations had peaked. The degree of the selloff here in NSS, & MVK; are nearly to levels that are really allmost unbelievable if you buy into this being a multi-year cycle in its early stages. Not sure that I do; but this is sure getting cheap... but; what cautions me is that this has never been a broad market mo-mo group; but rather a heavilly institutionally owned group - by the "smart money" energy speciality funds. Personally; I think this environment for the oilpatch is a call option play only - out of the monies give some super upside; but limit & define the risk/cost here. I'm shopping - but only call's in the oilpatch here; I've only got 10% in oils & will add some out of the money calls on 4-5 fav's into weakness here. Earnings did nothing here, the mid east events have been 1-2 day selling rallies only. Winter is too far away as yet - I see no catalyst here in the next 4-6 weeks... and if crude , or nat gas retrace here; we can certainly very easily re-test OSX 100 at worst & if we get good API's - at best; we continue to bounce in a trading range of 115-128ish imo. Not much nearterm upside reward and a lot of nearterm risk; that = call options for Jan-March imho. The risk to the oilpatch is that with the lower GDP 's- the majors are going to sit on cap ex $ untill they see where the US economy & Oil Prices - soft land to in 2001. The risk is two-fold here; that they wait untill Q3-4, or that the landing is not so soft and arrives much sooner... The E&P's are not acting well here either...