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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Warpfactor who wrote (77988)	11/6/2000 11:47:13 AM
From: Meridian	Respond to of 95453

In a perverse way, a Gore election would be bullish for oil and gas prices in that he would limit supply by restricting drilling. Then again he would also limit demand by taxing gasoline and heating oil, so that his dream of biofuels becomes a reality someday. Maybe a wash. But I don't foresee windfall taxes. That idea'd get $hitcanned in Congress.

To: Warpfactor who wrote (77988)	11/6/2000 12:02:19 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Election leverage here ? ...I'd have to think that it would be minimal in the nearterm. The slowing US Economy is a much bigger story than anyone realizes. The Majors obviously learned their lessons from Asia. The problem here is they may sit on the major $ untill Q3, or Q4 and that delay will cause a momenteum collapse to rig counts & earnings - that will be filled with selling. That tubular chart can NOT be ignored and the Majors have NEVER been given the type of valuation here that their earnings, or commodity prices indicate to many. I think the Street also learned a big lesson from Asia - get out of Oils' - EARLY ! and perhaps they are.... In the 97-98 cycle we went from 140 to 80 - over a 3 month period, then had a short spring rally to OSX 120 and collapsed into what was still NOT the peak in earnings - the sector blew off 12 mos before earnings peaked... deja vu ? The nearterm risks; if not the near total lack of significant near term catalysts; overwhelm the nearterm upside here; only a Mid East event spike is going to drive the Oils to any degree here & they've all been selling rallies - earnings are over & got sold into... whatever DCB we can muster may be the upside. A banded trading range untill we see a SIGNIFICANT breakout in rig counts, dayrates & new contracts - earnings from the service/mfg subsectors is the best case imo nearterm and we may see a grinding pullback untill we see Q4 earnings... OSX 100 is the next barrier...