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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vendit™ who wrote (467)	11/6/2000 1:58:50 PM
From: JLS	Respond to of 6710

Hal Bruno's Guide to the Battlegrounds Here’s an hour-by-hour guide to the battleground states, in order of the times their polls close: -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 P.M. (EST) INDIANA (12) and KENTUCKY (8) are the first states to report and both should go to Bush. (Indiana hasn’t voted for a Democrat since 1948.) ------------------------------------------------------------------ 7 P.M. FLORIDA (25) is the big one Bush must win. The health care and Social Security issues have made it a close race. The keys are seniors (21% of the vote), African-Americans (10%) and Jewish voters (6%) who won it for Clinton in 1996. Gore needs a 200,000 plurality coming out of Broward County on the southeast “Gold Coast.” The Republican strength is retired Midwesterners on the Gulf Coast and in central and north Florida, “crackers” in the Panhandle and Cuban-Americans in Miami (12% Hispanic vote). NEW HAMPSHIRE (4) is leaning to Bush and VERMONT (3) to Gore, but neither is a lock. --------------------------------------------------------------------- 7:30 P.M. OHIO (21) is leaning to Bush and no Republican has been elected president without carrying Ohio. To pull an upset, Gore would need a huge turnout in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) and the industrial cities of northern Ohio. WEST VIRGINIA (5) has voted for the Democrat in 10 out of 13 presidential elections since 1948, but this year it’s a toss up. The United Mine Workers are flat-out for Gore, but the rank-and-file miners like their guns and the NRA has worked the state hard. ------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 P.M. PENNSYLVANIA (23), MICHIGAN (18), TENNESSEE (11), MAINE (4) have been too close to call. It all depends on the Democratic turnout in Philadelphia, Detroit and Memphis, especially among black votetrs. Pennsylvania is a “must win” for Gore and he’s been struggling to save Tennessee, his native state. Nader could tilt Maine to Bush. ILLINOIS (22), NEW JERSEY (15) and DELAWARE (3) are leaning to Gore, but have tightened up in the final week. MISSOURI (11) is leaning to Bush, but big Democratic turnout in St. Louis and Kansas City for the Senate race – where dead Gov. Mel Carnahan is still on the ballot – could make it closer. Illinois, Missouri and Ohio are true bellwether states, having voted for the winner in 23 out of 25 elections in the last 100 years. Delaware has voted “right” in 22 of those contests. --------------------------------------------------------------------- 8:30 P.M. ARKANSAS (6) is a toss up, but President Clinton went “home” on the weekend to campaign for the Democrats. --------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 P.M. WISCONSIN (11), MINNESOTA (10) and NEW MEXICO (5) are dead even, with Nader hurting Gore in all three. Again, it depends on Democratic turnout in the big cities – Milwaukee, Madison, Minneapolis – and the Hispanic vote (28%) in New Mexico, a state which has picked the winner since it entered the union in 1912. LOUISIANA (9) is leaning to Bush, but Democrats think they have a chance if they can pull a big African-American turnout (29% of the vote). -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 P.M. IOWA (7) has been a tight race for several weeks. NEVADA (4) should go to Bush, but a large Democratic vote in Clark County (Las Vegas) could make it closer. -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 P.M. CALIFORNIA (54), the biggest prize of all, leans to Gore and is part of his electoral vote base (along with New York’s 33). Gore has been ahead in every poll. But not by margins that were enough to lock it up. Bush campaigned there last week, mainly to fly the flag and help Republicans in some close House races. WASHINGTON (11) and OREGON (7) could decide who gets the 270th electoral vote needed to win. Both have been too close to call and are probably Nader’s best states. All of Oregon votes by mail, but it’s counted immediately. Half of Washington votes by mail, and it’s only required that they postmark ballots by midnight on Nov. 7. It can take days to count and if the outcome depends on Washington’s 11 electoral votes – the nation could face a long and turbulent week! (Hal Bruno is the senior political analyst for Politics.com. He retired as the political director of ABC News and has covered every major election since 1960.) politics.com