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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (34403)	11/6/2000 3:58:17 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

<if Cisco continues to increase its size and growth rate, pretty soon it'll be the entire economy, no?> Umm, no, not soon. CSCO sales, $19 BN, US GDP $8.1 Trillion. (World GDP, $32 Trillion?) CSCO sales are currently 0.235 percent of US GDP. They've got a ways to go before the environment presents a limit.

To: tekboy who wrote (34403)	11/6/2000 8:05:19 PM
From: chaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Tekboy, Even DS will agree with you that such a development is very unlikely. First, even if CSCO's growth rate increases, that could only happen (over the long term) if the economy growth rate likewise increases. AG would soon put a stop to that, no? But we're getting confused here. (I'm not, but perhaps some are...ggg). Large numbers. (My portfolio isn't one of them, darn.) DS is referring to growth percentages, as in X% of a large number is greater than X% of a smaller number. But it's still X%. If someone else is referring to actual numbers, then $X divided by a large number is smaller than $X divided by a small number. As the divisor (4th grade arithmetic, right mathemagician?) increases, the rate of increase of $X appears to go down. If a market is stagnant, and every player gets the same $X this year as last, do we say those with less than $X are growing faster just because they're working with a smaller base? duh! No, of course they're not. If my company had a market share of 50% in 1999, increased from 40% in 1998, and was headed for 58% in 2000, then do you say the market share growth is slowing and interpret this as a negative? Not with half a brain you don't. DS is correct...there isn't any "law" of big numbers. They're just numbers, and can be played with any way you like. Us ex-sales guys sometimes got real good at that, and every once in a while, some smart cookie like DS would call us on it. Like now. Chaz