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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (4558)	11/7/2000 4:34:40 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5482

KLIC as a proxy for the industry: Here is the monthly chart of KLIC vs SOX for the past 3 cycles. It seems that every sharp down move by KLIC heralded the downfall of SOX. siliconinvestor.com The one exception (sort of) was in '99. It also seems to me that SOX slightly leads KLIC on the way up. A possible reason is that the lead time for KLIC is a lot shorter than most. I think ASML has an 8 month turn around time. So if I am a customer and I see some slow down in the business, I won't want to lose my place in ASM's queue at the first sign of weakness. That would be too costly if the down turn does not materialize. I would not have that problem with KLIC. This also means that companies will long lead times will continue to claim business is great long after the back end warns. ST