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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TraderGreg who wrote (525)	11/7/2000 1:20:33 AM
From: Cisco	Respond to of 6710

Now we wait and see!<g>

To: TraderGreg who wrote (525)	11/7/2000 1:26:40 AM
From: TraderGreg	Respond to of 6710

The reason the long run estimate and point estimate produce different results is this. In my "detailed" model, I used actual probability estimates(based on tracking poll data spreads) to simulate 4,096 elections. In those 12 undecided states, Gore's leaners were CA .60, FL .69, IA .69. Bush's leaners were WI .77, TN .89, AR .69, and WV .69. In 5 states(MO, OR, NM, NH, and DE), I declared them dead even and set the probability to .50. Since Bush's leaners, ranging from .69 to .89, were stronger likelihoods than Gore's, which were .60, .60 and .69, in the detailed model, Bush would be assigned 77% of WI votes, 89% of TN votes, 69% of AR votes, and 69% of WV votes. Moreover, Bush was also assigned a portion of Gore's leaners since probabilistically he would win those states with some small frequency over 4096 trials. This would corresponding to winning those states the respective X% of the time over 4096 trials. Gore, on the other hand, would only receive 60% of CA votes, 69% of FL votes, and 69% of IA votes in the detailed model. He would also receive a % of Bush's leaners since he would win those states with some small frequency over 4096 trials. Again, this would correspond to his win % in those states over 4096 trials. So, since Bush's probabilities were so high, he was assigned a greater percentage of his own leaners than was Gore. In the point estimate model, a one shot trial, each candidate was simply given ALL the electoral votes in any state that he was leading in. Thus, Bush got all 11 of WI, TN,all 6 of AR, and all 5 of WV. However, Bush does not get any portion of Gore's leaners since all of those were assigned to Gore in the simple model. Finally, he is given MO and NM as a SWAG. For Gore however, in the simple model, he was given all 54 of CA, all 25 of FL, all 7 of IA. This is a substantial increase over the detailed model. While he doesn't get any of Bush's leaners, this is more than made up for by getting ALL of his own leaners. Finally he is also given OR,NH, and DE as a SWAG. TG

To: TraderGreg who wrote (525)	11/7/2000 10:57:02 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6710

Final election eve polls show a gradual shift to Gore: There are two outliers (?) with Rasmussen showing Bush up by 9%, and Zogby's with Gore up by 2%. All the others show a range of tied to 5% ahead Bush. In order of Bush lead: Battleground up 5% ABC up 4% CBS up 4% Newsweek up 3% NBC up 3% WSJ up 3% Wash Post up 3% USA Today up 2% Gallup up 2% Fox tied My SWAG is based on an average of the ten non outliers= Bush up 2.9%. I'm going to give Gore a half percent more for some momentum and because some of the polls were from the weekend= Bush up 2.4%. Also weather around the country with a few key exceptions is generally OK for Democrats. My final adjustment is the Nadar factor, especially in close states. The polls indicate that 28% of those voters (roughly 1 1/2% of total national vote) are somewhat or very likely to switch votes. However, I believe that organizationally the Nadar people will ensure their 4% threshold no matter what. Also Gore will not get 100% of those switch votes. Therefore I see the final tally as: Bush 48.8, Gore 47.0, Nadar 4.2 Followup to my yesterday's post 489: Coin flip states were DE, ME, OR, IA, and WI for 32 votes. MO is very close also, but rain and little Nadar factor edges this to Bush. Oregon goes to Gore because of Nadar switchover and clues from Gore's resurgence in WA. Oregon's polls that I have seen are old. DE goes Bush. Maine is a toss up with 5% Nadar support. Gore may get enough Nadar supporters there to squeeze over. That puts it at Gore 266 to Bush 254. So I slightly revise my earlier prediction: The election will be determined by students (Nadar defectors) at Iowa City and Madison, and weather, but Gore only needs one of those states to win. Zogby's last WI poll was 46-46, with Nadar at 6. The last IA polls were a week old and show Gore up by 44-42 (Des Moines Register), and 44-43 (Research 2000). Weather is rainy. Note that if Bush can pull Maine and WI (loses IA) of the coin tosses, we have the 269-269 tie.