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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: who cares? who wrote (62175)	11/7/2000 10:40:52 AM
From: If only I'd held	Respond to of 122087

I'm not saying either company is better than the other. They both burn cold hard cash like it is toilet paper. They both claim to have a big vision behind their buildouts. ARBA is burning into their working capital right now as we speak if I am not mistaken having burned thru their entire stash of cash 2 qrtrs back. I have not read the numbers behind AMZN lately but I beleive they have a lot more money than ARBA right now. It has been some time since I went thru ARBA's filings, but I remember that they burned thru all their cash 2 qrtrs ago and began tapping into their working capital to continue operations. How long can they do that? My recollection was that they had about 120 million in working capital or so. ANyway, I would love to debate you more on this, but we should both have our numbers in front of us, so maybe later. CMRC is also an excellent short in my opinion. Heck, they are only slated to do 400 million dollars next year. Where does that place their multiple? Hard to say because profits aren't even part of the forecast. I don't disagree that B2B is going to be a lucrative business...I know it will. Just like internet retailing. But it will level off in the short term, and ARBA better be prepared to handle that slower growth. I don't think they will. I don't think management is all that bright. Did you know they paid some 500 million or so for a company that was only doing about 250k in revenues and boasting large losses? Not sure if the numbers their are correct either, or what the name of that company was anymore. But bottom line is, management did that just to bail out some poor dopey venture capitalists that couldn't pull off a scammy IPO of that company. They issued stock for that aquisition like it was toilet paper. That is self-serving management if I ever saw it, and people like that cannot be trusted with your investment capital. They never got punished for that. That is all my opinion. If I get time later, I'll dig out some numbers so that they are more accurate and share them with you. For now, all I can say is...beware of the hype. I am betting ARBA starts seeing massive downgrades next earnings release. Down to 30 she will go. One more thing, I am all for speculating. I am a very speculative investor in fact. But there is a price to speculate and a price to just turn your back on it. The price to speculate on ARBA, CMRC, and some of these other B2B's is entirely too extreme as far as I am concerned. ARBA at 33 billion dollars is just plain ridiculous right now I beleive. I'd rather buy YHOO or AMZN, but I ain't doing that either. YHOO will last. YHOO will be a winner. But the price is just plain too high for me.