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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (61992)	11/7/2000 3:03:09 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

T-bonds rallying towards the close. Your projection of 7% T-bond yield sometime next year will not happen unless the dollar drops sharply. Let me say that I think the dollar will take the big hit, but I have been expecting that for some time now -- to no avail. Without a big drop in the dollar T-bond yields probably will not go much above 6%.

To: Gary Burton who wrote (61992)	11/7/2000 4:26:07 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Respond to of 99985

<<SOX weakness now signalling one more new low>> Scroll down these guys make an interesting comparison of the SOX chart with the Aussie dollar.. sandspring.com M.

To: Gary Burton who wrote (61992)	11/7/2000 4:40:09 PM
From: Stcgg	Respond to of 99985

Indicators Show the US Economy Going South - newaus.com.au Indicators show the US economy going south TNA News with Commentary Friday 3 November 2000 Bank Credit Analyst research group has expressed doubts that there will be a soft landing for the American economy, contradicting the optimistic views of many on Wall Street who believe that the economy will merely weaken rather than go into recession. BCA takes the view that falling equity prices are a harbinger of tough times ahead that will strike at consumer confidence and reverse the wealth effect and hence cut consumer spending, which most analysts believe drives the economy. Taking the historical approach, the BCA opines that US investment trends tend to follow profit movements. Therefore, falling investment should see profits diving as the margin between selling prices and rising costs is squeezed. This view seems to have been confirmed by the release last Friday of the third-quarter GDP figures showing that the economy had sliced more than 50 percent off the previous quarter’s growth rate. The slowdown is being touted by some as vindicating Greenspan’s plan to engineer an economic weakening in preference to a credit crunch. The research group seems to believe that economic trends lag behind movements in the financial markets. With financial markets going down it follows, according to this reasoning, that the rest of the economy will eventually go down with them. On this point, however, the group’s data does not seem to be telling the whole story. Evidence is mounting that capital goods industries have already fallen, or are falling, into recession. If this is so then changes in output are preceding changes in the money markets. The TNA always insists on pointing out that the usual movement is output first and share markets later. On a number of occasions it has pointed that this sequence has been the norm, giving detailed explanations as to why. This certainly suggests that the group’s data might be incomplete and out of sequence. Many analysts still believe that the 1929 Wall Street crash sparked off the Great Depression even though industrial output had started to fall several months before the share market was hit. This confusion about the series of events that triggered the greatest depression in history still haunts the markets today. It’s plain that its spirit is still leading many in the wrong direction. Nevertheless, despite the gloomy outlook for the American economy and the obvious confusion about economic trends, European corporations are buying into the US on a massive scale, splashing out $US152 billion in the third quarter of this year, which might be telling us much about Europe’s investment climate as well as these corporation’s economic judgement. >><<