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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nichols who wrote (565)	11/7/2000 10:53:44 AM
From: TraderGreg	Respond to of 6710

Give the people what they want. Gore's campaign staff, while certainly better than Beckwith/Estrich group that ran the Mondale and Dukakis operations, did not perform to the level that they could have. IF Gore had had pit bull Carville and Stephanopoulos, different ball game. But he didn't and the proof is in the pudding. Gore bet on CA in the bag and in a way, he had to do that, due to limited resources that had to go to all those other midwest battleground states and FL. Obviously, if Gore loses CA, game is totally over. That is the first sufficient condition for a GORE loss. However, that state won't come in til later tonight and perhaps not until all those absentee ballots are counted. I will prepare other "necessary and sufficient" conditions later. I am still using my original point estimate, which of course, was made on razor thin margins. That method gave Gore a slight win with 276-262. If time permits, I will update the quasi-simulation model I did to reflect Bush's improvement in CA, Gore's improvement in MO, and other changes....but it should make little difference from my original post last night... Bush win with 285+ votes. What a sea change. Never did I think that CA would be in-play at the end. Never say never, I guess. TG