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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TraderGreg who wrote (583)	11/7/2000 2:06:40 PM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6710

TraderGreg, I like your choices. I am most uneasy about WI and OR which could go either way. Nader is very strong in both states. Both states are very liberal. Hard to predict what the Nader voters will do. Will they deny Gore a victory to make a point?

To: TraderGreg who wrote (583)	11/7/2000 2:22:18 PM
From: ivan solotaroff	Respond to of 6710

Sorry if I'm asking this in the wrong place. I just wasted a half-hour watching CNN for some early indications, and being a poor surfer, haven't found anything on the Net. Anyone have any news about exit polls?

To: TraderGreg who wrote (583)	11/7/2000 2:22:22 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6710

Trader, my analysis of the latest poll data comes up with a 95% probability that Gore will pull less than 190 electoral votes and that the Republicans will maintain control of both houses of Congress. Most voters I spoke with today are voting a straight Republican ticket, but then I am in Georgia......

To: TraderGreg who wrote (583)	11/7/2000 2:48:43 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6710

I keep coming up pretty close to your results with a few exceptions: Maine: You have Bush locked. I see the RKM poll of last week at 42-42. Even using a potential outlier poll (Rasmussen, skewed Bush?) is showing Bush up only 43-39. Comes up on a lot of tossup maps. Iowa: You have leaning Gore. Polls only show 1-2% Gore lead, and it's raining. I have true tossup. New Hampshire: I have leaning Bush, you have toss up. Polls show Bush up 10% (ARG), and 8% (Rasmussen). True there is a 1% Gore up poll, and this state is famous for unexpected. Delaware; You show going to Gore in a tossup. Could well be, but Mason-Dixon gave Bush 4%. Rasmassen however gave it to Gore by 1%. In the final analysis I give DE, ME and NH to Bush and come up with a 269-269 tie. Also word is out about a big voter turnout which will firm up the Democrat count. My latest POP is Bush 48.6 Gore 47.2 Nadar 4.2. I think this is a pretty unbiased analysis, as indeed I voted for Bush. Among the other tossups, I gave WI to Bush, but that one is where I have my greatest doubt.