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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Miller who wrote (925)	11/7/2000 4:24:19 PM
From: Kayaker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1805

How does the information released in this analysts-only meeting square with the recent SEC regs on selective disclosure? It seems like important confirmation (and new info?) of demand strength and is material to buy/sell decisions. And they got it first. Or was it broadcast and I missed it? We are on track. Our demand continues to be strong to this day, and our backlog has increased. Driving the demand are new platforms, particularly at 10 gigabits. Our biggest near-term challenge continues to be securing enough supply to meet this strong demand

To: Don Miller who wrote (925)	11/7/2000 4:26:38 PM
From: SJS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

Don, I have the highest respect for Dave and what he's done with AMCC. I own this stock for my kid's college education. But I want to bring one thing to your attention that has WS concerned. It's the CYCLE! Here are some Market Comments from Prudential this morning. They are general in nature, but worth listening to. Pru is not alone with this view. It's what's been taking these stocks off their highs for the last 2 months, or more (if you count the SSB capex semi call this summer): _____________________________ .....So although tech acted badly yesterday, there is still opportunity. All technology is cyclical. It's a capital good. when semis were at the highs they were considered non-cyclical driven by new "legs" of demand, Now they are considered very cyclical and everyone is waiting for the fundamentals to improve. The group has been basing for a month now with little interest, very low volume and several downgrades (the last of which have had no impact). The "legs" are still there but most have corrected the 70% or so they usually do in a downcycle. Software is also cyclical. BEA isn't now but neither was BMC once. The trend is definitely still up, Seibel is even close to making new highs. The fundamentals are outstanding although arguably the leader is clearly telling us something about business (Oracle traded below the level of last week where the silly Ellison rumours surfaced). We should be aware that few could bare owning SEBL on its way from 10 to 80 but now everyone owns it. The infrastructure software stocks are great but keep your eye on the momentum. But telecom equipment is most dangerous. It's like the semis three months ago. Bouncing all over the place. Buyers coming in on news like PCS is spending some money. Shouldn't that be a given? They still feel like they are ok and justifications such as :" but demand is sooo strong" is keeping them from falling further. If there is now a debate over a/ inventory and b/demand doesn't that prove there is a cycle? The keritsu model of telecom companies owning chunks of emerging telecom stories is over. Willams used to own alot of Sycamore and was thus incentivised to give SCMR business. WCG has since sold its stock and given a metro order to Ciena. In the meantime, Sycamore has dropped from $170 to $60...not until more analysts downgrade, volumes drop and sentiment turns more bearish will it be worth making a big bet here. The attitude to the CSCO quarter which was basically strong but showed a little inventory build shows the trend for this group is down.... ---------------------------- I got another cast-iron skillet whack in the head today. So did you. I am getting tired of holding these stocks and seeing profit dissapear, or losses mount. The Q4 and Q1 reports for these company are either going to have great numbers and good guidance, or these stocks will be halved yet again. with Good numbers and guidance, you get to stay at the prices you see now. That's some bet, huh? Steve