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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom D who wrote (43098)	11/8/2000 11:49:07 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 77400

What gives? Here's a very interesting critique. I think you need to sign up to see it. grantsinvestor.com

To: Tom D who wrote (43098)	11/8/2000 12:29:39 PM
From: aladin	Respond to of 77400

Tom D: Because.... If this was March the stock would go to 120+, but this is November and we have seen a lot of water go under the bridge. Back before the dot com bubble burst we had a lot of irrational exuberence. After the burst and after Lucent and a couple of others we have a LOT of microscopes being applied. So the pendulum swings :-) Where should it be? Well a little time with a spreadsheet shows that if the stock price grew at 1/2 the eps growth we will have a trailing PE below 100 by next qtr. It declines to sub 50 fairly quickly. Revenue projections show CSCO overtaking NT and LU for overall market lead within 5-7 qtrs Can we sustain this growth? Well previous bears said we couldn't do it when we were a 1 billion/qtr company. This last qtr shows accelerated growth on a gross of 6.5 billion. The issues of inventory, customer loans, options and debt can never all be directly compared. Everyone uses these financial vehicles with the exception of Cisco which does not have any debt :-) Only time will tell. John

To: Tom D who wrote (43098)	11/8/2000 12:58:47 PM
From: GVTucker	Respond to of 77400

What gives? There was unquestionably a balance sheet deterioration in the past quarter. Yes, I know that there is a logical explanation for the big inventory bump, but the bump is still there. Nine months before LU gave their first of many earnings warnings, the balance sheet began to deteriorate. Six months prior, cash flow began to be impacted. We all know what has happened since. At the time, I was kind of on an island on the LU thread maintaining that there were serious problems at LU. I maintained that McGinn should have been replaced back then. I was pretty much unanimously dismissed back then as just another bitter bear. Every analyst and buy side portfolio manager that follow CSCO remember the full LU story. They all ignored the warning signs then, because LU was giving the same excuses that CSCO is giving now. Is CSCO having the same problems as LU. I am pretty confident that the answer to that is 'no', of course. But there are a lot of people in the investment business willing to shoot first and ask questions later, because they don't want to get burned again.

To: Tom D who wrote (43098)	11/8/2000 1:17:33 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

I think it has something to do with this. upside.com Personally I think the vendor financing of wcii is an act of a desperate company. In the CC they said not to worry about vendor financing. They said they are very conservative. AT&T got a lower credit rating yesterday. WCII can't even predict when they will have profit EBITDA. I think the street don't care for csco doing vendor financing with companies and sectors that can't get financing in the bond market. Bambs