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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (14089)	11/8/2000 5:56:20 PM
From: jmanvegas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Greg: Here's my take FWIW. 1)HP & Dell earnings coming out this week. Dell's earnings probably will be weak. What this has to do with FO is beyond me but all tech is getting painted with the same brush. 2)The semi leaders such as BRCM, PMCS, IDTI, AMCC, etc. have literally crashed, especially BRCM & PMCS this week alone. How can one be confident of a tech bull leg without these guys. A bounce is probable from these levels but then again everything is a trade today. 3)A leading Lehman strategist who called the dot.com meltdown has put out a paper floating around the Street that many, many 2nd & 3rd tier telecom players will be going out of business over the next 12-18 months. He's likening it to the dot.com meltdown. He states they can't raise any money now and only have enough cash on hand to operate what they have currently built for the next year or so. He's talking about a devastating scenario. 4)Ma Bell was put on credit watch. Who would ever have thought about that 2-3 years ago. 5)The Fed is NOT going to accommodate by lowering rates at this time. It is rumored that AG & George W. don't get along too well. 6)IMO, the election depicts a divided country between the haves and the have-nots. No mandate & partisan squabbling for the next 4 years no matter who's elected President. Continued talk about the vanishing surplus. 7)CSCO is slowing. Sure they're slowing from 65% growth to 50% growth, but in the minds of the Street that means they're slowing. 8)Increased competition for JDSU. It is expected that NT & LU will spin off their component businesses next year. Sure JDSU is the big dog and SDLI is the big prize, but more competition means in the minds of the Street, EVENTUAL slower growth for JDSU. So folks are looking 2 years out and making investment decisions based on that. We all know JDSU is going to grow some 115% next year. Okay. But you can buy all the stock you want in the 70's and today in the 60's. Is that 115% already growth priced in, especially if the Lehman strategist is correct. BTW, GLW guided growth down from 60%-70% this year to 25% next year and they're sold out. 9)Last, we're in a bear market for tech - plain & simple. I know you don't want to talk about TA, but you just gotta look at the broad distribution tops these stocks have put in. Pretty formidable resistance to say the least. The ugliest charts I have seen in quite awhile. Of course we will get upside bounces. But not until the Fed lowers rates will we get another bull leg in the tech market. And based upon the expressed policies of either Bush or Gore, that may not be forthcoming for some time. The fact is whoever is in the White House, it's AG who controls the agenda and therefore, the economic power. It's simply amazing to me that an unelected official has this kind of power, but that's the way it is. Personally, I look at everything today as a trade. No LTB&H for me. Is that the correct way to build wealth? The pundits will say no and they are probably correct. But one can get wiped out waiting over the next 2-4 years to see if things work out the way one expects them to in individual stocks. Capital preservation has to be at this juncture the #1 main priority. Anyway, good luck. jmanvegas