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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (78243)	11/8/2000 6:22:14 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Respond to of 95453

OT:Gold stuff. Gold won't do well if it has to live on its merits as a commodity. The hope for a gold rally is just a call on the unsustainability of the USD, no more. ...In which case it ceases to be just a pretty metal and becomes the alternative currency of choice. I'm buying the metal and continue to hold some of my equities (now underwater). I'm doing so b/c of the possibility that an oil crisis will emerge sometime within the next 6-12 months will bring down the markets and cause some exodus from the buck. If oil retreats, however, further expansion of credit is easy, and the dollar retreat, if any, will be orderly. Only a somewhat chaotic retreat will do the trick. If the dollar index just slowly meanders down to 100, I doubt much of anything will happen. But an oil shock will change everything. I agree that the odds of all of this coming together may not be investment grade material, but successfully taking this risk at gold at it's current sorry state is one I'm willing to make b/c of the massive short covering that will ensue. It's often the call made at the extremes that lead to the most fantastic gains - that is where I believed the nasdaq was, and that is where I think gold is. At this point, the best leading indicator of gold is the DOE numbers - they will call gold months in advance. If an oil shock begins to look inevitable, then gold is the right call. If they dramatically reverse their trend, it's been a waste of time and lost opportunity, but one I can accept. Regards, Josh.