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To: ericneu who wrote (116250)	11/8/2000 6:49:26 PM
From: Saturn V	Respond to of 186894

Thanks for posting that link. It is interesting that most of the recount data is consistent with elementary statistics. ( On a day of high political emotions, I am trying to view the issue from a dispassionate point of view of statistics ). "But they usually don't reverse the initial declared result, experts said Wednesday" --expected that from statistics, which states that the most probable recount will be "almost the same" as the first initial count, and there is a fifty percent chance that the recount will have an even larger margin. "said the more voters in the candidates' district, the lower the likelihood an election will be reversed because miscounted ballots and other problems tend to affect both sides" -- this also follows from the law of large numbers is statistics. The percentage change should decrease inversely as the square root of the electoral size. Given the large electorate in Florida, the percentage vote change should be very small. So the probability of Gore winning the recount is much dramatically below 50% ! All in all does not look good for my candidate, Gore :-(