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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (14097)	11/8/2000 8:38:06 PM
From: Dennis J Baltz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

JDSU is a dog. 68+1/2 give me a break, it was in the 80's just a couple of days ago. Something seems very wrong and we just don't know about it yet. Christ, Nortel is even doing better than JDSU. Maybe there is a problem with the SDLI merger we don't know about. What a pig. Dennis Baltz

To: pat mudge who wrote (14097)	11/8/2000 9:42:50 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk	Respond to of 24042

Hi Pat re: components inventory CSCO,ALA: for example Alcatel said that most of inventory was in form of almost finished goods which were not shipped to customers b/c shortage of certain components. as you know finished good, like switch, router etc. have much higher value them all part combined. in such case the $ value of inventory is most likely overstated with respect to components. it may be worth to look at ADI and PMCS and few others Zbyslaw

To: pat mudge who wrote (14097)	11/8/2000 11:58:51 PM
From: Kayaker	Respond to of 24042

...yesterday AMCC's CEO spoke and said there was no slow-down in business, no push-back in orders, no scary signs anywhere. Bookings are strong....1000 employees now and will have 2500 in next 18 months, 1st half revenues are equal to all of last year....The presentation couldn't have been any stronger. My #1 holding. I really like Dave Rickey. I sure hope he's right. I find it hard to believe that the management of JDSU, SDLI, AMCC et al are as blind and out of touch as some would believe. I'm sure this has a lot to do with today and yesterday: "Most of the communication systems companies haven't seen it yet," says Lehman Brothers analyst Dan Niles. "They're reporting strong order books from Nortel and Cisco. I hear that and I say, Oh, my God, we're dead. If you haven't seen the cutback in orders, that means it's right around the corner." Altera warned in early November that its revenue growth would be at the lower end of the 12% to 15% range the company had been forecasting. Niles thinks that there are more warnings to come. "These guys aren't used to the business being cyclical," said Niles. "Most didn't exist in their present form in 1995 and 1996. They look at the order books and say, This is fine. But they don't realize that it can vanish overnight. We'll get a rude awakening in Q4 and Q1." thestreet.com Niles Gets Serious on Semis 11/08/00 2:57 PM ET Dan Niles, who came out all aces on TSC's analyst survey, is really pounding the telco semiconductors. This isn't the first time, but he is saying that it is not too late to sell at all. Remember, Lehman is very powerful and his call has clout. He predicts that we are in the second inning of the decline! thestreet.com

To: pat mudge who wrote (14097)	11/9/2000 9:19:12 AM
From: gbh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Hi Pat, I finally bit the bullet and started buying jdsu yesterday. It appears I was a bit early. As far as the current correction goes, its a combination of inventory (whether jdsu and others deny it or not) and valuation, imo. I think the component suppliers may just take a bit longer to see it than you think. Perhaps in a few weeks, maybe a month or two. However, this inventory business will be relatively short-term, imo, and will work itself out over time (not sure how much). The real question I think is the "valuation correction" taking place. What is the right valuation for these 100+ PE stocks? Perhaps we are simply entering a "new" market where stocks will trade at a discount to their long-term growth rate. Oh wait, that would be the "old" market... Gary