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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bambs who wrote (43185)	11/8/2000 9:07:19 PM
From: chic_hearne	Respond to of 77400

Hi Bambs, Sorry to sound so bleak Well "bleak" is reality so there is nothing wrong with this. What the bulls can't seem to understand is that the stock market is the economy. It's the nature of things when it gets to be such a gross disproportion of the GDP. It's really a simple concept. The thread morons of course will disagree, but think about your everyday life and what effect the stock market has. How many long term Crisco holders have bought new cars or houses off of their Crisco gains? This is how the stock market becomes the economy, there's a direct correlation to spending. What happens when this income is gone? What will the impact on spending be? What about personal debt? People all over the country are carrying huge mortgages and playing the stock market with the equity they had before a refinancing. As the bubble unwinds, the credit crunch is going to be spectacular on consumers. An early warning of this is what I've been reading about in MSFT. Long time employees that were once millionaires found their tens of thousands of options worthless and many were carrying huge debt (either in the form of margin from exercised options or mortgage debt). I've read about them filing from bankruptcy now. There's a lot of people living far above their means because they could always just sell a little stock each month to pay for the extras. What effects will this have on the economy and spending as this bubble unwinds? I expect the real estate bubble to really get some tough love. The credit crunch will punish spending which is going to be good for no one. chic

To: bambs who wrote (43185)	11/8/2000 9:08:45 PM
From: Monty Lenard	Respond to of 77400

"have the courage to come here and admit being completely and totally wrong" I would not hold my breath on anyone here saying they were wrong. The egos are just too big. I have a very large client base that are in most every business imaginable and I see 200+ financials every month from this crosssection of businesses. It has just begun. I read Fleck every nite. He has been wrong for a while but only because no one can call the end of a mania ....that is why it is called a mania. I find Fleck gives a pretty good reasons for his positions. As for T. I was long T until they floated the biggest bond issue EVER. I sold it then with that particular broker screaming at me the whole time not to sell it. If they were that well of why would they need to borrow that much money. Now they are borrowing to pay CURRENT debt!!! Not good. I agree they are in serious trouble here. I do think LU is a possible buy here. As to how low all this can go I really don't know but I do know it ain't over yet. Still too much funny money out there. I tried a couple of longs today off good support just to test the water but had to back out of them. I do that as an acid test. I mean stocks that usually track good on my charts. This thing still acts like a bear and as I have said before I will treat it like a bear till it proves otherwise. Most of the people in this market today do not have a clue how much fun a bear market can be. It is relentless!!! Just enough rally (STRONG ONES) to keep their hopes up. :-) MOnty

To: bambs who wrote (43185)	11/8/2000 9:14:35 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 77400

bambs, The fact that you sound so bleak gives me a lot of optimism. I am considering you as more of a representative of the traders who the world is about to end. Negativity is always good, IMHO. As soon as the semis bottom, we are off to the races. I am not calling the bottom in that sector but I think it is around these levels for the communications chips like PMCS, VTSS, AMCC, XLNX etc. They will be worth watching tomorrow as they sold off on the Cisco earnings.....However....the companies in question are very adamant that demand is strong. Surely if Cisco had a large inventory, their orders would have slowed a little to these supplier. That would have caused these semis to get a just a tiny bit cautious in their public comments. I can tell you if I was a CEO of one of these suppliers I would tone down my super bullishness but they are as bullish as ever!!! Why are they still so bullish is my question. To me it is a signal of an overeation and that is why I am very optimistic. Lets see how these trade in the coming days. BTW--Dell's earnings may be a key for PC related chips stocks but will have nothing to do with the PMCS, VTSS etc types. In any case a slight positive from Dell could have a ripple effect in the communication chip stocks.