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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RR who wrote (13105)	11/8/2000 10:12:31 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Arthur Hill's Chart Update *Market Commentary* S&P 500 – 8-Nov: Trading Position – Bullish S&P 500 Position Points: 08-Nov: It doesn’t get any closer or indecisive than this. Arkansas votes for Bush, Gore cannot even carry his home state, Jeb cannot deliver Florida on the first attempt and Gore actually conceded the election based on network coverage. I find this last one the most incredible. 08-Nov: The winner on election night/morning has to be the Associated Press (AP), which never projected a winner for Florida or the nation. It is amazing that only the AP (as far as I know) actually looked at the vote count, the makeup of the remaining constituencies and figured out that Florida was still too close to call. The losers are the networks, which flip flopped like fish out of water in a futile effort to be first, the first to be wrong that is. With the recount due before the end of the week, this will give Wall Street an excuse to remain on the sidelines. With the house and senate remaining Republican, Wall Street might view a Gore win more favorably. 08-Nov: Unless there is something wrong with the counting mechanism, Bush’s will likely win Florida. Last count had him ahead by 1200- 1700 votes. There are also 2300 absentee and overseas ballots to be counted as well, which usually favor the Republicans. 08-Nov: Since jumping above 1420, the S&P 500 traded in a narrow range over the last 5 days. This action just confirms indecision, but does little to help define direction. My trading bias remains bullish, but lack of bullish follow through increases the chances of a pullback. 07-Nov: Not much to report the last two days as the markets are on hold pending the outcome of the election. Why investors or traders would put off buying or selling just because of an election is beyond me, but the reason fits well with the current low volume levels and restrained movements. As long as Greenspan remains, the markets should adjust to the new president. Stocks, especially drug, tobacco and entertainment, would likely jump in reaction to a Bush win and decline with a Gore win. Regardless of who wins, my short-term position remains with the bulls. 07-Nov: We are starting to see resistance around 1430 and there could be a pullback to around 1380. 07-Nov: Market breadth stats reflect the current level of indecision with the AD Ratio, AD Volume Ratio and TRIN all finishing close to 1. 03-Nov: RSI moved above 60 and the PPO remains well above its 9-day EMA. Momentum favors the bulls. 27-Oct: Before the open, my trading position changed from neutral to bullish – S&P 500 close: 1364. 27-Oct: Plenty of money out there. After the high volume decline from 1530 to 1330, plenty of stock has been sold, leaving plenty of money on the sidelines. 24-Oct: The PPO moved above its 9-day EMA for the first time since late August. 13-Oct: The S&P 500 traded down to the last bastion of bull market support at 1330. A break below support at 1330, combined with the lower high at 1530 (versus the March high), would make the long-term trend bearish. 18-Sept: Index broke below Dec-94 trendline. Key Support: 1330 (green circle) Key Resistance: 1450 (red circle) Nasdaq 100 - 8-Nov: Trading Position – Bullish Nasdaq 100 Position Points: 08-Nov: While the S&P 500, Dow and NYSE Composite continue to benefit from old economy elements, the Nasdaq suffers from new economy setbacks. The latest casualty was Broadcom (BRCM), which plunged about 20%. The technical warning signs were there: negative momentum (MACD and PPO), lower reaction highs in Aug, Sept and Oct, weakening money flows and the bearish engulfing on 24-Oct. 08-Nov: The Nasdaq 100 could be forming a lower high at resistance from the second fan line. As long as the index is bound by 3500 and 3500, the trading range will continue. 08-Nov: Nasdaq breadth stats have been weaker than their NYSE counterparts over the last few days, but the 5-day SMAs remain in bullish mode. 07-Nov: I still remain concerned about the level of bullish sentiment. Although, the VIX spiked above 30, it finished at 27. The last two October lows have produced remarkable buying opportunities and many believe this one will be the same. 03-Nov: 10-RSI moved above 50 and 10-day StochRSI remains above .50. The PPO moved above its previous reaction high and the 10-day Stochastic Oscillator above 50. Although not overwhelming, momentum definitely favors the bulls at this point. 02-Nov: Fan line fans may note that the index broke above the 4147 trendline and then fell below. The index has yet to break above the second trendline (or possible fan line). These fan lines usually come in threes. In which case there could be a break above the second followed by another support test and a final break above the third. Any way you slice it, 3000 remains key support. 27-Oct: Before the open, my trading position changed from neutral to bullish – Nasdaq 100 close: 3167. Key Support: 3000 (green circle) Key Resistance: 3500 (red circle) Dow Industrials – 8-Nov: Trading Position – Neutral. Dow Industrials Position Points: 08-Nov: The Dow’s 160 point advance was followed by a short decline and resistance at 11,000 has proven itself 4 of the last 6 days. 08-Nov: The 10-day Slow Stochastic Oscillator remains above 80. It is overbought, but still favoring the bulls. The PPO remains above its 9-day EMA and momentum remains bullish for now. 08-Nov: Since peaking in late October, volume on the Dow declined and the last three days were below average. 08-Nov: The Dow still has a lower low at 9655 and a potential lower high at 11,000. The long and intermediate term trends are neutral at best, with the short-term overbought and near resistance. 25-Oct: The PPO moved above its 9-day EMA for the first time since early Sept. 20-Oct: Follow through to Wednesday’s “selling climax” was quite strong with the index (and DIA) gapping up on the open and closing near the high. This strength has led me to raise support to 10,000. 20-Oct: The 10-day Slow Stochastic Oscillator formed a positive divergence and moved above 20 for bullish confirmation. 21-Sept: Average broke below Dec-94 trendline. Key Support: 10,300 (green circle) Key Resistance: 11,000 (red circle) <snip - see charts at link> stockcharts.com Ö¿Ö