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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rhino Ray who wrote (13300)11/9/2000 2:29:54 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
very timely article on Fed courts and voter action

I am a statistician, but would NOT want the responsiblity for remedy on assignment of all the Buchanan votes
I have a decent idea of how I would do it, but methods were involve deep assumptions
e.g. "no Buchanan vote was intended for Bush"

I must go back to the original conclusion
if you cannot fill out a ballot, following simple arrows, or vote twice for a candidate, then I dont think you SHOULD qualify to vote for USA Presidents, let alone decide what to wear in the morning

thanks / JW



To: Rhino Ray who wrote (13300)11/9/2000 2:42:06 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 65232
 
FL projection: cannot use simple extrapolation anymore

the last 18 counties are trending toward no candidate tendency
neither Gore nor Bush is benefitting
my guess is initial recounts came from Gore camps
and latest recounts come from Bush camps

53 of 67 counties now result in a Bush lead of 787 votes

looks like the recount final will show a 700-850 Bush lead
looks like random jiggles to a figure near 800 with stability

more important is the Palm Beach dispute
thanks to RhinoRay, veryvery difficult to reverse votes due to ballot confusion
I wouldnt give a new repeat vote 1 chance in 100
give the same ballot to 20 friends, and probably nobody would be confused
mental giants, they aint

I still say the FL absentees will end this dispute
and that will NOT be anytime soon

great to see NazComp come nicely off lows
/ Jim