To: long-gone who wrote (60730 ) 11/9/2000 3:48:16 PM From: Alex Respond to of 116764 Gold has strong downside potential G. Chandrshekhar MUMBAI, Nov. 9 THERE is a palpable negativity about gold price prospects because of both demand side and supply side factors. International bullion traders, producers, bankers and market analysts are asking each other how long will gold be able to hold on to the current levels and when would the yellow metal move down to $250 per ounce. There is general consensus about the strong downside potential of gold. The million dollar question is when or how soon. Whether producers, bankers or analysts, each one is concerned about limited marketing opportunities, rising costs and general lack of interest. Under the circumstances, many believe, gold prices may decline to $250/oz sooner rather than later. Some producers suggest it could possibly happen within the next two quarters (if not this year). Indeed, some would be happy to welcome such a development because it would cause wide scale rationalisation of the industry. There is a sizable number of gold mine companies whose break-even price is above $250/oz. Prices lower than the current levels would encourage consolidation through mergers and acquisitions. Bullion bankers complain of the general lack of interest in the market and declining volumes as also volatility. Market analysts, on the other hand, are concerned that they are becoming currency rather than commodity analysts, given that the only genuine factor seen as market-moving is the direction of the US dollar. Confirming the negative sentiment in the market and the influence of the currency, an analyst with Macquarie Bank Limited said without a major reversal in the dollar it was difficult to see gold prices not testing and probably penetrating last year's low of $252/oz. Interestingly, producers, speculators, proprietary traders and central banks continue to be sellers into strength, that is they sell whenever the market firms up, which action by its very nature limits the upside. Physical demand for gold appears lacklustre with Indian demand in particular weaker than expected, following poor agricultural production and loss of incomes. Official imports are down 40 per cent year-on-year for the period ended September. Even in the US demand has reportedly slowed down significantly with gold coins coming back into the market and jewellery demand easing. Elsewhere, demand in Europe and much of Asia appears modest, with only West Asia and Turkey showing signs of real strength. With central banks remaining consistent in selling the yellow metal and speculators increasing their short position (sell first and buy later at reduced price), the market does appear vulnerable to a bear raid. hindubusinessline.com