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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scumbria who wrote (127903)11/9/2000 10:34:49 PM
From: Joe NYC  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1570542
 
Scumbria,

The chances of getting a 1500/500 split tossing a penny 2000 times are incredibly small. There are 2^2000 possible combinations of coin tosses, and the number which have 500 or fewer heads are an extremely small percentage of that total.

That's a lot less specific than last time. I thought you knew the answer.

What's an incredibly small number? 25%, 10%, 1%, 0.1% probability?

Of course numbers in question are net of a net of an error, which is as close to meaningless as you can get.

Joe

PS: One county left, Bush lead is 229 according to AP.



To: Scumbria who wrote (127903)11/10/2000 12:18:41 AM
From: tejek  Respond to of 1570542
 
The chances of getting a 1500/500 split tossing a penny 2000 times are incredibly small. There are 2^2000 possible combinations of coin tosses, and the number which have 500 or fewer heads are an extremely small percentage of that total.

Scumbria,

I think you guys are over thinking this problem.

It appears to me that the vote counting (.0023 vs .0076) was 3X more accurate with Bush than Gore. That, to me at least, looks suspect.

ted


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