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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (78452)	11/10/2000 10:11:28 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Bullsky; ie: bulls/bears - sentiment indicators Bull - I don't quite buy that as accurate ? We're testing 3000 here and people are obviously selling ! - the last men standing - you can run, but you can not hide; posterchildren - PMCS BRCM JDSU etc are getting killed here; so how could the "bulls" who just capitulated & sold of their "generals" be statistically so "bullish" ? - I don't buy it. I shorted & used puts extensively in July & August for Tech; but, also traded some longs; but was mainly short. The risk vs reward to continue short into this ESF support prior to the election was not savy. I am waiting for a post election honeymoon rally to re-enter short with puts on the BTK (upon GW's conformation) and was looking at the PMCS BRCM crowd as well - which disappeared here... so; actually - "this" may be the first "real" DCB Naz/Tech trading opp that I see ! - and I KNOW that the ESF will intervene here - more than ever. This is actually a justifiable time to intervene ! - I guess I'm a contrarian among contrarian's... ? Yes; I still believe what was cheap before this Election over-reaction is STILL cheap & what was not cheap; still isn't... But; for trading; the NAZ here is getting really interesting for one hell of a DCB on this election BS - I am literally tempted for just a very short-term DCB trade... I'm 50% Oils; with half of that just added in the first dip to OSX 115 & I've got stops set at 113; to trigger a 2 point/ 1-2% max loss for what I just bought. I also have 35% Golds - yes, under the water; but 10%ish or so & there has been some tradeable volatility and will continue to be some. I sleep well with that position; if all hell breaks loose & we see a foreign repatriation of funds from the US Markets & a collapse here; obviously the XAU is going to pop upon a flight to safety reaction. I was above water on that Mid East one day flash rally & I certainly do NOT view; slowly & patiently averaging into XAU weakness & building a position in golds as NOT - "admitting when I am wrong" - quite the contrary; the XAU/Gold's are behaving as I would expect them to be and are a great hedge here on the long Oil's that I am holding - that I didn't buy on the Sept & Oct up rallies - as many here did by the way (VBG)... All this doom & gloom for the Oilpatch here & now ? - when they were cheering & celebrating and buying the prior Rally ?!?!?! - now; with this coldfront approaching, with Saddam getting restless, with OPEC just announcing no new production increases ? - dumping here ? nah. This is about using smart money management techniques; I won't loose 2% on my stops triggering me out of half my OSX position here & if that triggers; the XAU/Golds will imho; certainly be looking at some upside on any Market Madness should it set in... I'd be 25% oil & 35% gold & 45% cash at OSX 113ish... I'll perhaps even float my stops depending on what the Oil & Gas commodity tape does into any OSX selloff. This is evolving into a GREAT - ANOMALY trading/buying opp - in that what I am looking for is this: - Oil & Gas commodity tapes, stay stable, or rise into this Election Volatility - There is no significant volume to the OSX selloff/pullback - The Absentee Ballots in Florida come in to GW's favor & by next tuesday when/if the State of Florida "certifies" the re-count - it's done... We shall see; actually when/if the Fla recount is certified next tuesday & when/if the absentee ballots come in to Bush's favor - it could be a great short term NAZ/TEch trading opp - literally a blip in a greater Bear correction; but a huge trading opp building. Much ado about nothing imo - a classic anomaly trading opp for the Oils: if the commodity tape stays positive - once again - it;s all about: The Price of Oil - Stupid ~ ... just more deja vu all over again~ - nothing more, nothing less ;)