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To: Dave Gore who wrote (4279)11/10/2000 2:02:44 PM
From: Michael Watkins  Respond to of 8925
 
Dave,

I am 100% in cash in my retirement accounts, and nicely up for the year there... but until a discernable bottom is in place, and has demonstrated that it will hold, I'll be keeping that cash/tbills etc right where it is.

History (25 years) has shown that tech is a good place to be, and it probably will be again, but we've not had to experience the entire tech sector running parabolically high and then dumping. In other markets it has often been years before recovery. Some markets have never recovered (Gold, Bre*X). Look at Japan.

My plan is to wait; I'm not personally a fan of averaging down - not even in long term retirement accounts and especially not with individual names (stocks). I could almost make some sense, for some people, of averaging down buying SPY and QQQ, but never specific names.

Almost makes sense, but I won't do it. I watch the market closely enough and am also not concerned about missing every last point on a perceived bottom. I'll wait; watch it happen; watch it prove itself; and then buy about that first valid retracement. I'll have tight stops in place and if the market makes a hint of failing the retracement test I will be out.

And I will sleep well every night.

:)