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To: Petz who wrote (18637)	11/10/2000 5:00:22 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 275872

ted, I believe Jerry said in the CC that October was slow but that sales picked up in November. A few analysts that albert posted picked up on the "October was slow" comment, but completely ignored the November pickup. Now that JC's has a transcript, I can look for it. Petz, I saw your comments in an earlier post re a recession. I too have been worried about that for a while. However recently I began to realize that AG is probably pulling off another soft landing....he either has nine lives or is a genius...the lastest economic data seems to indicate that; the only wild card being the price of oil. However the OPEC nations are sitting on a pile of debt and so they are more fearful of a global recession than we are....meaning I think we will continue to see a moderation in oil prices. In any case I think the markets have priced the soft landing in during the past few months. What I think will happen going forward is that we will have more choppiness but with some slight improvement until such time as the Feds reduce interest rates...hopefully that will be in the first quarter of 2001. Is that your take or do you have another view? ted