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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: im a survivor who wrote (14264)	11/10/2000 5:04:28 PM
From: brightness00	Respond to of 65232

Okay, I will start by wailing about my own misfortunes. I tiptoed into the market on Wednesday afternoon, well, they promptly dropped an anvil on my toe! The market is cutting my stock exposure back under 60% for me!

To: im a survivor who wrote (14264)	11/10/2000 5:28:21 PM
From: jambo-bwana	Respond to of 65232

Keith re you have every right to bitch about your own misfortunes, but you dont need to run around predicting the demise of the stock market and the world as we know it You are now guilty of are doing the same thing that others did to you when they were critical of you for "whining". Let limitex do his thing - his posts may be depressing to you - just as your posts were depressing to others not so long ago. I think that you should follow your advice to others and if limitex is getting to you, just place him on "ignore". Re the market, let me give you a few thoughts; I suspect that I have been in the markets rather longer than most people who post on this thread. I find it amusing when people post on this thread about this being the worst bear market in history! Perhaps it is the worst bear market since they have been in the markets but there have been bear markets much more severe than this one. The bear market in 73-74 was a lot worse - it turned off an entire generation from stocks for quite a while. The 1929 bear market was a while back - but we have all heard about how that bear market affected an entire generation who would never invest in stocks again; my father was one who lost money in that crash but more to the point he saw others who were destroyed by it - and he never bought another stock the rest of his life and he lived until the ripe old age of 90. As far as this market is considered by any definition the naz is in a bear market and when and at what level we will see the bottom is anyone's guess. The average bear market has lasted 18 months and so if we assume that it started in March 2000, it would not be out of line for it to continue until September 2001. The 73-74 market saw the major indices down 60% off its highs, I believe. None of the above is intended to panic anyone - like I said I have no idea how low or how long this decline will last. What I can tell you with a fair level of certainty is that if you don't take steps to preserve capital you will not be there to take advantage of lower prices when the market finally bottoms. I enjoy reading Voltaire and have a certain admiration for his faith in the stocks that he recommends. But I don't know - and I suspect most on this thread don't know - what portion of his net worth is at risk when he buys RMBS, INTC, QCOM and so on. If he is putting a small portion of his net worth at stake that would be one thing - but if he is putting all of his money on the line that is a whole different situation. I would liken it to the person who plays at the $10 black jack table at Vegas - who cannot afford to lose more than $100 versus the guy who plays at the $100 table and if he lost $10,000 it would be of no consequence. Once again remember the survivors in a bear market are those who can withstand the worst of it and come out ahead when the market turns - and that takes good stock selection and good money management. Just some thoughts for you to consider; have a good weekend.