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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (119)11/10/2000 8:19:20 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95888
 
Here is another reference table. The 2nd and 3rd column
show the earnings estimates in October 1998. The 4th
column shows the price for each stock on 10/9/98 - this is
the start of the upward move culminating in March of 2000.
The 5th and 6th columns show the latest First Call earnings
estimates going forward. The 7th column is today's closing
prices. Note the different totals at the bottom of the
columns.

OCTOBER 1998 10/09/98 11/09/00 11/10/00
EARNINGS EST CLOSE EARNINGS EST CLOSE
SYMBOL CURR YR NEXT YR PRICE CURR YR NEXT YR PRICE
AMAT 0.55 0.33 11.82 2.39 3.48 40.94
ASML 0.26 0.34 4.54 0.75 1.23 22.56
ASYT -0.19 -0.01 3.10 2.09 2.44 12.50
ATMI 0.49 0.76 11.38 1.35 1.78 18.06
BRKS -0.33 0.01 8.63 1.64 2.62 20.25
CFMT -1.54 -1.04 6.63 5.88
CMOS 0.32 0.28 5.03 2.87 3.60 16.19
COHU 0.85 0.74 7.69 1.81 1.70 14.69
CYMI 0.23 0.40 8.00 2.00 2.99 20.50
DPMI 0.96 1.85 19.31 2.92 4.54 48.75
EGLS -0.58 -0.27 9.25 2.02 1.74 13.63
FSII -0.30 -0.35 4.63 1.27 9.06
GSNX -0.06 -0.24 3.63 1.66 14.81
HELX 0.18 0.30 8.63 1.97 2.81 25.00
IMSC 0.13 0.76 5.75 0.99 1.27 15.75
KLAC 0.38 0.76 12.50 2.28 2.56 26.25
KLIC 0.02 -0.06 5.78 1.89 1.03 10.38
LRCX -0.41 0.42 3.30 2.13 2.21 16.19
LTXX -0.37 0.12 1.28 1.60 2.06 13.06
MTSN -0.43 0.29 2.75 1.32 1.55 10.94
NANO 0.50 0.55 4.81 1.18 1.64 20.63
NVLS 0.44 0.50 7.69 2.33 3.11 29.38
PHTN 0.05 0.15 2.38 1.54 32.06
PLAB 1.02 1.14 11.00 0.85 1.50 19.75
PRIA 0.12 0.04 10.63 0.66 1.33 18.50
SFAM 0.19 0.99 10.13 -0.20 0.66 7.75
SMTL 0.23 0.17 2.50 1.23 1.65 11.44
SVGI 0.25 0.07 6.88 2.00 2.44 28.56
TER 0.71 0.80 9.00 2.87 2.95 29.00
TGAL -0.81 1.50 -0.01 0.49 2.47
UTEK -0.23 0.35 15.38 0.20 1.10 19.56
VECO 1.20 1.81 24.75 0.85 2.41 54.88
WFR -5.02 -4.74 3.50 -0.75 0.51 9.00
TOTAL -1.20 7.21 253.77 47.70 59.40 658.37
SOX-X 200.80 624.20
COMPQX 1492.49 3028.99



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (119)11/10/2000 8:20:45 PM
From: Sun Tzu  Respond to of 95888
 
Donald, thanks very much for the table. It is very useful. I wonder how the current declines compare in relation to their previous rise. When I looked at SOX and Nasdaq, it seems that in the period leading to the top they had above normal growth. So in some ways it makes sense for them to have more than usual decline now. But this is just a general observation. I have not looked at it closely.

regards,
ST