Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Pueblo who wrote (7025)	11/10/2000 8:45:06 PM
From: Lost to Voodoo	Respond to of 10876

Oh thanks TLC, I'm honored. I'll study over the weekend & get back to you. Off for more gallivanting at the moment.

To: Don Pueblo who wrote (7025)	11/13/2000 12:02:20 AM
From: Lost to Voodoo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

BTW, thanks Po for that thoughtful Cooper article. TLC, here's my ambiguous two bits FWETFTW: I do think we're at an exceedingly precarious point. On the edge of the cliff. OTOH, we're not over it yet, and even if we have a screamer down tomorrow, or a bouncer up, things obviously won't be fully clear till we have more days behind us to judge by (like - the rest of our lifetimes?). I think the triangle pattern is definitely a possibility, and we've pretty well covered that one. The other pattern I mentioned - the bump and run reversal or BARR for short - is one I've been watching on and off as well, but worth reviewing here. It could be called a bubble pattern, as that's what it describes, and it was discovered by Thomas Bulkowski. Bulkowski in his book "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns" compiled the pattern performance statistics that I so often refer to. Here's the monthly NAZ chart at this point, with the trendlines for the pattern superimposed in yellow: hoodoo.to Without going into exhaustive detail, Bulkowski calls for a sell signal on the downward break of the upper trendline, which would have taken one out around 4K - not terrible for the LTB&H'er. Notice the pullback to that line after the break, and the repeated attempts to get back above it. Followed by the decline to where we are now, having just broken the second trendline. Not a good thing. However, not decisive yet in my book. A break of the third trendline - around 2500 by the time we get there (if & when) - would be the actual pattern trigger, for a target of...you guessed it: darned near 2K, which also happens to be where that blue trendline following the low points will likely be at that point. Just noticed the RSI looks pretty awful on this chart, comparing the Aug 98 low with where we are now. Negative divergence (higher price low, equal RSI low). Ugh. Yet at the same time, the new low divergences still look good. Yea. Ugh-yea. Incidentally (you probably know this, but for others...), if 3K does crack badly, with volume and persistance confirmation, there's a roughly 70% chance there will be a pullback to the 3K line - a second opportunity for those to get out who didn't before, and to short/put the hell out of the thing. Anyway, it ain't over till it's over. And then it's too late!