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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Pueblo who wrote (7026)	11/11/2000 1:42:42 PM
From: Poet	Respond to of 10876

General Market thoughts: I've become extremely concerned about the market over the past couple of weeks, and I believe the election debacle will be used (if it has not already started) as a fulcrum for a severe market downturn over the next month. There are a number of reasons I feel this way and factors such as geopolitical concerns, partisan politics and the general technical health of the charts are all part of the mix. First, I believe that retail investors have been expecting a fall rally and have been "buying the dip", thinking a rally is around the corner. While this coming week is options expiry, and is typically flat to positively biased, a number of technical anaylysts whom I admire (Don Sew, Lee, and Richard Hahn) all see cycle lows at the end of November. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday may well give a few days of relief to the market if there is a change in bias to a "neutral" stance, but I am concerned that the threats of legal action with regard to the election, as well as the US's close alignment with Israel in the face of today's news: Message 14784428 may put us in a precarious geopolitical situation which will be reflected in the market. Is there a possibility that tension in the Middle East will result in US military intervention? What are the chances that the US may retaliate against Bin Laden for his attack on the USS Cole? Will Saddam or Bin Laden see the current political foment as an opportunity to conduct terrorism targeting the US ? How will the world at large react to an administration that is the object of acrimony within our own borders? Richard Hahn has repeatedly stated at his website, which is now available only to subscribers hahnscorner.com that the recent breaks in the DJIA and Naz charts are leading to a revisit of the October 18th lows. He also gives a cogent and detailed analysis of the oil situation and points out that the continuing weakness in the Nikkei is yet another point of concern for the future earnings growth rates of certain tech stocks. In all, I 'm now extremely cautious about the mid- and longer-term outlook for the stock market in general and the Nasdaq in particular. I've sold the majority of my tech holdings and will confine myself to daytrading the indices and certain trending stocks (long and short) until I become more confident.