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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vendit™ who wrote (1641)	11/10/2000 9:44:14 PM
From: TraderGreg	Respond to of 6710

OR has just been given to Gore, for now. Since there are 6 states where a recount is highly probable, I have assumed all six will be taken out of the respective candidates elec vote column. Those six states: FL(25), WI(11), OR(7), IA(7), OR(7), and NH(4) represent a total of 59 electoral votes. Since we have a sample of millions that indicates all six are still tossups, it's safe to say a .50 probability for each candidate in each state. Removing the above 6 states from the mix, Gore has 237 votes and Bush has 242 votes...Gore thus needs 33 of the 59 and Bush needs 28 of the 59. Since Bush has the lead with the above 6 states removed, at this point in time, Bush's probability is .53, Gore's .44, and a tie is .03. I never thought I would be doing this 3 days AFTER the election. Gore's Votes Probability 59 0.0156250 55 0.0156250 54 0.0156250 52 0.0312500 50 0.0156250 48 0.0468750 47 0.0312500 45 0.0156250 44 0.0156250 43 0.0468750 41 0.0468750 40 0.0156250 39 0.0156250 37 0.0312500 36 0.0468750 34 0.0312500 cumulative .43750for Gore Win 32 0.0312500 <==TIE at 269-269 .03125 30 0.0312500 29 0.0312500 27 0.0312500 25 0.0312500 23 0.0468750 22 0.0312500 20 0.0156250 19 0.0156250 18 0.0468750 16 0.0468750 15 0.0156250 14 0.0156250 12 0.0312500 11 0.0468750 9 0.0156250 7 0.0312500 5 0.0156250 4 0.0156250 0 0.0156250 cumulative .53125 for Bush win