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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (2911)	11/10/2000 10:29:11 PM
From: Victor Lazlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

Mark it sure does seem that most of the bellweather co's of most the major tech sectors, and most of the bellweather co's of the sectors that feed them, have warned of coming slowdowns. Where the silver lining is I don't know. Maybe the downdraft we've seen means there can't be much more but I now doubt that. The pres thing is going to drag on and greenspan's not going to lower rates. In fact we could be looking at a real lose-lose screnario: Co profits are slowing (fact) but employment and wages, and consumer spending, remain very strong, so Greenspan cannot bring the Fed to lower rates for the forseeable future. This catch-22 could be death for the mkt, imo. Victor

To: Mark Fowler who wrote (2911)	11/11/2000 9:23:19 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

It may or may not be. I don't have a clue whether it will or not. The new low list has been contracting on each retest of October 18. Even though Nasdaq closed lower yesterday than October 18, there were half the new lows. I'm just saying business isn't slowing at Ariba and probably won't be for years, other than by the law of bigger numbers. As for retests, every stock doesn't come back down with the market. If you look back to the cyclical bear market in 1990, you'll see that Microsoft and Dell didn't come back down to their lows. Then there's the matter of fundamentals. May was six months ago. A lot has changed in Ariba's fundamentals, and the market's appreciation of them in the last seven months.