To: Larry Brubaker who wrote (7687 ) 11/11/2000 2:09:02 PM From: Zeev Hed Read Replies (1) | Respond to Larry, in fairness, i have yet to see anyone making Li-Polymer batteries profitably. On the contrary, according to Lev, two to three of the current 15 licensees have "dropped out" and the others are still trying to get the kinks out of their respective systems. Lev stated quite categorically that he'd rather negotiate then sue. There are other differences between the bu$$ and the holy one, first the bu$$ has a bag full of cash (and a market cap of $6 B). The holy one, with about 40 MM plus shares outstanding (was that not my target of outstanding shares a year ago? <g>) has a market cap under $800 MM (when using $20 per share). You can make an interesting argument here. Over the next two years, the Bu$$ will draw royalties from a market that is at worst some $30 B, the holy from a market that Lev said will reach a billion in two three years (the total potential rechargeable market is $8 B, but I think it will be optimistic to assume that eventually more than 50% will be royalties bearing for the holy one). So come to your own conclusions, assuming similar royalties rate (upfront payments for the 15 licensees were already taken by Telecordia), if VLNC becomes an "IP only" company under the best case it should have a cap 1/30 of the bu$$, at least for the next two three years. That is a cap of $200 MM in today's market (or $5/share). However, I am "on record" stating that the fair market cap of the bu$$ is $15 B ($150/share), thus under this scenario, the fair market cap of the holy one should be $.5 B or $12.5/share. It seems that currently, the market is pricing the holy one possible future success at a much higher level than the bu$$ already 50% success (they have about 50% of the dramurai signed up).
