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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jamok99 who wrote (18691)	11/11/2000 2:47:57 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

jamok99: Would have been nice to have a 1.5 gig up and ready to go, no doubt...but within the context of all the positive accomplishments of AMD in Y2000 and continuing accomplishments,is a relatively minor and certainly innocuous slippage, innocuous as AMD currently holds down the performance lead and the P4, in its current incarnation, appears to be no significant threat based upon any believable posted benchmarks, and if all goes well, which is not at all a given, won't be available in significant retail quantities for another 12 months...AMD has no reason to surpass its own market leader at the moment, no reason until INTC can prove, with retail quantities, that it has a viable response...(I got the distinct feeling that the whole conference call was an exercise in sandbagging, much like we've witnessed throughout Y2000, in the midst of record revenues and earnings)...What kind of got lost in all the conference goings on seemed to be the excitement around the 1.2 gig Athy/DDR standard that has been established by AMD, a standard that looks certain to be picked up by the broad general market based upon early indications...This truly exciting combination sets the stage for potentially explosive revenue growth in Y2001 as the PC upgrade cycle kicks in and as a clear departure from INTC's P4/RMBS thrusts, will serve to further differentiate AMD as the market leader in Y2001...Another downplayed statement was that 80% of production out of fab 30 is at 1 gig and above...Together, the Athy/DDR combo and the high ratio of 1 gig and up binsplits is gonna make it real difficult for Dell to stay in the INTC fold... Nothing at all in the conference suggests that AMD is about to pass its leadership baton to INTC...Nothing at all suggesting that AMD won't come in at $4.8 billion in y2000...Nothing at all to suggest that AMD's leadership in the consumer PC space won't continue to widen and will not only continue positively in its quest for 30% marketshare but ample reason to believe that AMD might become highly competitive in the workstation, mobile and server spaces as Y2001 unfolds... The AMD scenario is not at all the depressing one you have painted...Don't know any company that has come so far so fast over the past year vis a vis its competitors...The Athy/DDR combo and high binsplits out of fab 30 leads me to believe that AMD will again in Y2001 continue making positive strides relative to its competition...

To: jamok99 who wrote (18691)	11/11/2000 3:22:08 PM
From: andreas_wonisch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Jamok, very good post. The problem is that AMD really screwed up in some areas (Mustang, delayed MP, delayed MHz ramp etc.) and although it's still undervalued it's not any more an incredible buy like it was one year ago. I think the stock price "anticipated" these things in advance -- especially the sluggish PC demand. If AMD will be able to execute its current roadmap we should have good but not phenomenal growth over the next few quarters. Everything beyond that depends heavily on Clawhammer and Intels P4 ramp. It's too early to make a guess on that. Andreas

To: jamok99 who wrote (18691)	11/11/2000 3:37:50 PM
From: ajbrenner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

*Re:Jerry was true to his word this time - he said* he'd have some 'big surprises' for us towards the end of this year!** jamok99, Let's wait until the end of the year before we pass judgement on the "big surprises". ajb