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Biotech / Medical : Biotechnology Value Fund, L.P. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (2097)	11/12/2000 12:49:29 AM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4974

<<In sum, the biotech highflyers are dangerously exposed in a market that has seen significant selloffs in sector after sector. For this reason, our firm recently has reversed its previously bullish advice to clients that invest in this sector. Smart investment is always a matter of matching risks to potential rewards. So, riding the biotech darlings further could be dangerous. Sometimes, it's necessary to leave money on the table in order to keep some in your pocket.>> Maybe, and maybe not. That many bios, from high highflyers to new IPOs, are over-valued is no secret at all. Now, the question is why? Why money continue to flow into bios at premium MC? Recently OSIP, NPSP, CVAS, IMNX, PDLI, HGSI,... Can this money find other fertile land? The overall perception is that bios perspective is better than ever. Who, in this word, can say for sure, “this 5-10 bios will be new or better AGPH, MEDI or IMNX of the past”? None! Money is spreading over entire sector, and in the race to capture positions before next guy, many stock price rise into irrational territory. But, 5-10 years from now some of these seeds will grow into toll tree. Sufficient to compensate for wrong bets and still have good overall return. So, irrational bet now may appear as sound one in few years. Bottom line, I see Barron’s article as empty shot from position of those who can not separate black from white. Everything is gray, so act accordingly. BS! However, I am not one who will chase bios at the current level. I prefer to wait for chance (like with SUPG) when irrational strike, but this time for our benefit. Miljenko

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (2097)	11/12/2000 12:36:48 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4974

blush......... One last thought..... it's no coincidence that so many interested parties are coming out, in very visible forums, as biotech bulls. I'd love to see them go face down, eating dirt and losses, but.... I agree, the highflyers are over valued. Most will realize that I meant to say "bears". It's no coincidence that so many objective observers are popping out with "beware biotech" rantings in the forums that love to play to big money. When I consulted for underwriters, I'd get warnings, from out of the irrational blue, that the sector was going down. It did. It's collective "don't rock the boat" wisdom. Wall Street doesn't make money by being smart. We all know that. They make money by brute force. Small cap biotechs with good pipelines and/or patents may not be safe havens, but (1) it's the place, IMO, to make bongo returns in the next six months, (2) some of them look safe to me, and (3) there are enough companies that are absolute values (and screaming relative values) that one can construct nice, diversified baskets. Why Gruss won't concentrate on picking small caps and providing them with liquidity, instead of dumping on the sector as a whole, is beyond me. In general, the "moneyed" interests in biotech pick the "pipeline" small caps and stick them in their PAs -- but only, and generally only, when they're not dumping on the big guys. However, again, I don't disagree with the major point that Gruss is driving home. Too bad that they don't have the guts to drive further.